The US dollar has pulled back a bit during the trading session on Wednesday after the Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 50 basis points. This was widely expected, so that was knocking to move the needle much. That being said, the market is likely to continue to see a lot of questions asked as to where we are going to go in the future, but I think at this point we are more likely than not going to continue to see more of the same back-and-forth that we have over the last several months. Quite frankly, not much has changed as the 1.29 level has held quite significantly.
Underneath, the 1.25 level is massive support, so the fact that we are at the top of the range should not surprise people in the sense that it has turned things around. If we were to break above the 1.29 level, then it would be very bullish for the US dollar, but it should be noted that the crude oil market was very strong during the day, and therefore I think it is very likely that we drift lower from here. I would not necessarily suggest some type of meltdown, just a continuation of the overall range-bound trading that we had seen. In other words, I think is going to be more of the same.
Keep in mind that this pair does tend to be very choppy as the two countries do so many cross-border transactions, but if you are a range-bound trader this might be the best place to be right now. We have clearly defined levels that we can pay close attention to, and as long as that is going to be the case I see no reason to fight what could be a very lucrative market. You need to be a bit cautious about overextending yourself because we do get the occasional violent move, but at this point, it is obvious that there are buyers and sellers at very distinct points on this chart, which is part of what makes it so interesting. I do not see this market breaking out, but if we were to clear the 1.30 handle, then we could start moving to the upside, in a very dangerous “risk-off” type of situation. You would probably see the oil markets under serious pressure at the same time.
