This week I will begin with my monthly and weekly forecasts of the currency pairs worth watching. The first part of my forecast is based upon my research of the past 20 years of Forex prices, which show that the following methodologies have all produced profitable results:
- Trading the two currencies that are trending the most strongly over the past 6 months.
- Trading against very strong weekly counter-trend movements by currency pairs made during the previous week.
- Carry Trade: Buying currencies with high interest rates and selling currencies with low interest rates.
Let us look at the relevant data of currency price changes and interest rates to date, which we compiled using a trade-weighted index of the major global currencies:
Monthly Forecast May 2022
For the month of May, I forecasted that the US Dollar Index (USDX) would rise in value. So far, it has risen by 0.35% this month.
Weekly Forecast 8th May 2022
Last week, I made no weekly forecast as there were no unusually strong counter-trend price movements in the Forex market over the previous week. I again make no forecast this week.
The Forex market saw its level of directional volatility stay the same for the second consecutive week, with 44% of all the important currency pairs or crosses moving by more than 1% in value. Directional volatility is likely to decrease over this coming week.
Last week was dominated by relative strength in the Euro, and relative weakness in the British Pound and Swiss Franc.
You can trade my forecasts in a real or demo Forex brokerage account.
Key Support/Resistance Levels for Popular Pairs
I teach that trades should be entered and exited at or very close to key support and resistance levels. There are certain key support and resistance levels that can be watched on the more popular currency pairs this week.
Currency Pair | Key Support / Resistance Levels |
AUD/USD | Support: 0.7059, 0.7006, 0.6963, 0.6926 Resistance: 0.7132, 0.7180, 0.7227, 0.7275 |
EUR/USD | Support: 1.0444, 1.0427, 1.0372, 1.0350 Resistance: 1.0551, 1.0591, 1.0604, 1.0650 |
GBP/USD | Support: 1.2314, 1.2208, 1.2139, 1.1976 Resistance: 1.2406, 1.2500, 1.2624, 1.2698 |
USD/JPY | Support: 130.01, 129.83, 129.55, 128.59 Resistance: 131.50, 132.00, 132.50, 133.00 |
AUD/JPY | Support: 91.99, 91.04, 90.52, 89.93 Resistance: 92.94, 93.34, 94.76, 97.00 |
EUR/JPY | Support: 136.47, 134.35, 133.76, 133.39 Resistance: 138.26, 140.00, 140.67, 141.00 |
USD/CAD | Support: 1.2969, 1.2794, 1.2778, 1.2684 Resistance: 1.2959, 1.3025, 1.3127, 1.3179 |
USD/CHF | Support: 0.9833, 0.9671, 0.9633, 0.9604 Resistance: 0.9941, 1.0050, 1.0111, 1.0139 |
Let us see how trading reversals from one of last week’s key levels could have worked out:
USD/CHF
I had expected the level at 0.9848 might function as resistance, as it had previously acted as both support and resistance. Note how such “flipping” levels can be very reliable reversal points. The H1 chart below shows how the price rejected this level with an extremely large outside candlestick during the New York session last Wednesday, The entry point is marked by the down arrow within the price chart below. This trade has not been very profitable, achieving a maximum positive risk reward ratio of less than 1 to 5 based upon the size of the entry candlestick. This is a good lesson as to how very large signal candlesticks should be treated with caution, and can often be best traded by dropping down to a shorter time frame.
That is all for this week. You can trade my forecasts in a real or demo Forex brokerage account to test the strategies and strengthen your self-confidence before investing real funds.