Trading Support and Resistance

Adam Lemon

Get our trading strategies with our monthly & weekly forecast of currency pairs worth watching using support & resistance for the week of May 9, 2022.

This week I will begin with my monthly and weekly forecasts of the currency pairs worth watching. The first part of my forecast is based upon my research of the past 20 years of Forex prices, which show that the following methodologies have all produced profitable results:

Let us look at the relevant data of currency price changes and interest rates to date, which we compiled using a trade-weighted index of the major global currencies:

Currency Price Changes and Interest Rates

Monthly Forecast May 2022

For the month of May, I forecasted that the US Dollar Index (USDX) would rise in value. So far, it has risen by 0.35% this month.

Weekly Forecast 8th May 2022

Last week, I made no weekly forecast as there were no unusually strong counter-trend price movements in the Forex market over the previous week. I again make no forecast this week.

The Forex market saw its level of directional volatility stay the same for the second consecutive week, with 44% of all the important currency pairs or crosses moving by more than 1% in value. Directional volatility is likely to decrease over this coming week.

Last week was dominated by relative strength in the Euro, and relative weakness in the British Pound and Swiss Franc.

You can trade my forecasts in a real or demo Forex brokerage account.

Key Support/Resistance Levels for Popular Pairs

I teach that trades should be entered and exited at or very close to key support and resistance levels. There are certain key support and resistance levels that can be watched on the more popular currency pairs this week.

Currency Pair

Key Support / Resistance Levels

AUD/USD

Support: 0.7059, 0.7006, 0.6963, 0.6926

Resistance: 0.7132, 0.7180, 0.7227, 0.7275

EUR/USD

Support: 1.0444, 1.0427, 1.0372, 1.0350

Resistance: 1.0551, 1.0591, 1.0604, 1.0650

GBP/USD

Support: 1.2314, 1.2208, 1.2139, 1.1976

Resistance: 1.2406, 1.2500, 1.2624, 1.2698

USD/JPY

Support: 130.01, 129.83, 129.55, 128.59

Resistance: 131.50, 132.00, 132.50, 133.00

AUD/JPY

Support: 91.99, 91.04, 90.52, 89.93

Resistance: 92.94, 93.34, 94.76, 97.00

EUR/JPY

Support: 136.47, 134.35, 133.76, 133.39

Resistance: 138.26, 140.00, 140.67, 141.00

USD/CAD

Support: 1.2969, 1.2794, 1.2778, 1.2684

Resistance: 1.2959, 1.3025, 1.3127, 1.3179

USD/CHF

Support: 0.9833, 0.9671, 0.9633, 0.9604

Resistance: 0.9941, 1.0050, 1.0111, 1.0139

Let us see how trading reversals from one of last week’s key levels could have worked out:

USD/CHF

I had expected the level at 0.9848 might function as resistance, as it had previously acted as both support and resistance. Note how suchflipping” levels can be very reliable reversal points. The H1 chart below shows how the price rejected this level with an extremely large outside candlestick during the New York session last Wednesday, The entry point is marked by the down arrow within the price chart below. This trade has not been very profitable, achieving a maximum positive risk reward ratio of less than 1 to 5 based upon the size of the entry candlestick. This is a good lesson as to how very large signal candlesticks should be treated with caution, and can often be best traded by dropping down to a shorter time frame.

USD/CHF Hourly Chart

That is all for this week. You can trade my forecasts in a real or demo Forex brokerage account to test the strategies and strengthen your self-confidence before investing real funds.

Adam Lemon

Adam Lemon began his role at DailyForex in 2013 when he was brought in as an in-house Chief Analyst. Adam trades Forex, stocks and other instruments in his own account. Adam believes that it is very possible for retail traders/investors to secure a positive return over time provided they limit their risks, follow trends, and persevere through short-term losing streaks – provided only reputable brokerages are used. He has previously worked within financial markets over a 12-year period, including 6 years with Merrill Lynch.
Learn more from Adam in his free lessons at FX Academy

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