The S&P 500 rallied in the futures market on Monday as we are above the 3950 level. That being said, the 4000 level above is going to cause a certain amount of resistance, based upon the psychological importance of that level. That being said, we have sliced through it multiple times, so it is only somewhat important at this point. Ultimately, the market has seen a lot of negative pressure more than once, and I think that will continue to be the case going forward.
The S&P 500 has a massive amount of resistance at the 4100 level, extending to the 4150 level. That is an area where we had seen a lot of action in the past, and the previous support level should offer quite a bit of “market memory” if we approach it again, so I think a lot of sellers will come into the picture. Signs of exhaustion will be jumped upon, and I think that this rally is going to be short-lived, to say the least. The candlestick for the trading session on Monday is somewhat bullish, but it is also worth noting that we gave back some of the gains at the end of the day.
Regardless, even if we do take off to the upside, I believe it is probably only a matter of time before we see exhaustion that people will jump on, as the bearish case is still very strong. After all, we have to worry about inflation, and a lack of growth. I am waiting for some type of exhaustion that we can take advantage of and have no interest whatsoever in trying to buy this market. If we were to break above the 4150 level, then it is possible that we could see the 50-day EMA come into the picture as well.
As things stand right now, I have no interest whatsoever in trying to buy this market, and I believe it is only a matter of time before we get the signal to start selling. In fact, we need to get above 4300 to even have that conversation, something that I do not expect to see anytime soon. It is a matter of getting an opportunity, and that means taking your time and being patient.
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