Gold markets rallied significantly on Friday to show signs of strength. We reached the 50-day EMA, which is an indicator that a lot of people do pay close attention to. The 50-day EMA has been important multiple times, as we had seen the indicator offer dynamic support. During the day on Friday, we reached that from underneath and found dynamic resistance. It is interesting to see how this has plays out because we are now stuck between the 50-day EMA and the 200-day EMA.
The market typically will get very noisy between these two moving averages, so it is worth paying close attention to whether or not we can break out of this range. The hammer from the Thursday session suggests that there are plenty of buyers underneath, so if we were to break down below there, that would be an extraordinarily negative turn of events. Breaking down below the 200-day EMA opens up a flood of selling, perhaps sending the market down to the $1800 level. The market breaking down like that would be an extraordinarily negative turn of events and could accelerate momentum.
If we turn around a break above the 50-day EMA, that could open up a move to the $1950 level. After that, we then have a significant amount of resistance at the $1970 level. The market will continue to be noisy even if we do get a bullish move, but you need to pay close attention to the yields in America because if they continue to rise over the longer term, that could start to have a negative influence on this market. The market will probably continue to see a lot of volatility, so you need to be very cautious about the position sizing, and make sure that if the market starts to work against you, you bail out as quickly as possible. That being said, pay close attention to the next candlestick or two, because we should have a lot of clarity coming rather quickly. In general, I believe this is a market that will continue to see a lot of questions asked of it, and a lot of uncertainty is ahead. With the inflation and growth concerns, we will continue to have to stand guard.
