The Australian dollar initially tried to rally on Friday but gave back gains rather quickly. At this point, it looks like the Australian dollar is going to continue to find plenty of sellers, as the market has been extraordinarily negative. After all, the Federal Reserve remains very tight with monetary policy, so the US dollar should continue to be strong. After all, the interest rate differential between the United States and just about everybody else is rather strong, and it makes sense that the pair should continue to drift lower.
Keep in mind that the Australian dollar is highly levered to risk appetite, which of course has been eviscerated. The 0.71 level above seems to be offering resistance, so I think the market is one that you should fade every time it shows signs of exhaustion. The market breaking down below the 0.70 level would open up a significant selling opportunity, perhaps allowing the Australian dollar to go looking to the 0.68 level.
Any rally at this point in time should be a sign of offering “cheap US dollars”, as the US dollar continues to strengthen against almost everything. It is also worth noting that as long as the Federal Reserve has to fight inflation, there is a real possibility of demand destruction. Demand destruction means that commodities will eventually sell off quite drastically, allowing the possibility of this market to fall even further. Breaking below the 0.68 level would be horrific and allow the Aussie to go looking at the 0.65 handle. Breaking down below that could open up the floodgates.
At this point, the market breaking to the upside could challenge the 50-day EMA, where I would anticipate seeing quite a bit of resistance. On the other hand, if we can break above the 0.72 level, that could change some things in this market, at least for the short term. Nonetheless, this is a market that certainly does not look like it is ready to do that anytime soon, and I think we will continue to see more selling opportunities than buying opportunities. The overall attitude of the market is going with the rest of the currency markets, and that means that it is pro-dollar, and anti-just about anything else.
