The US dollar has had an explosive trading session on Tuesday to break above the 50 Day EMA. At this point, the market looks as if it is trying to reach the 15 Rand level, which is a large, round, psychologically significant figure. The market breaking above the 50 Day EMA is a good sign, but now we have to keep in mind not only the large, round, psychologically significant figure but also the 200 Day EMA that sits just above there.
The market breaking above the 200 Day EMA would be a very bullish sign, and at this point in time is likely that we would continue to go much higher. The 15.50 level would be the next target, as it has offered resistance previously. At this point, I think the market is going to try to go higher, especially if we continue to see a lot of concern around the world. After all, that does tend to have money flowing into the US dollar more than anything else, as emerging market currencies are shunned.
The South African Rand is also highly levered to commodities, which got absolutely crushed during the trading session on Tuesday. The 15 Rand level could offer a significant amount of resistance, and now that we are between the 50 Day EMA and the 200 Day EMA, which is typically an area that causes a bit of volatility when you enter in. After that, you see a certain amount of impulsivity come into the market under most circumstances, and that is something that I will be following. The question now is more or less whether or not the 14.50 Rand level is going to offer a bigger “floor in the market?
If we were to break down below the 14.40 Rand level, the market is more likely than not to continue to go lower, perhaps reaching the 14 Rand level. The longer-term trend has been negative for a while, as both moving averages have been dropping, and of course the 50 Day EMA has broken below the 200 Day EMA, causing a certain amount of negativity due to the fact that it is the well-known “death cross signal” that a lot of longer-term traders will pay close attention to. This pair is highly sensitive to risk appetite, so always keep that in mind as well.
