The US dollar rallied a bit during the trading session on Thursday again to break above the ₹76.50 level. This is an area that previously has been a little bit of resistance, but in the bigger scheme of things is minor at best. When you look at the chart, we have been in an uptrend for quite some time, pulled back to the ₹75.50 level, and then shot higher again. Remember, this is a pair that typically grinds in one direction or the other and does tend to trend for very long periods.
The ₹77 levels have been important in the past, and I think that is where we are heading. This makes a lot of sense considering that the US dollar is strengthening against almost everything at the moment, and of course, the Indian rupee represents an emerging market economy. Right now, there are a lot of concerns about global growth slowing down, and the strengthening US dollar acts as a bit of a feedback loop because most emerging market debt is denominated in US dollars so therefore it creates quite a bit of problem for countries like India.
If we do see a continued strengthening of the US dollar against most other currencies, there is no reason to think that it cannot break above the ₹77 level rather handily. Keep in mind that the central bank in India is a little bit more active in setting a range, but right now I do not think they have a major issue with the rupee falling, mainly because it could be too expensive to fight it.
There are energy concerns, but it appears that India is finding some type of backdoor situation with the Russians, so that may not have the effect on India that it very well could have on other places like Europe. Nonetheless, if we start to see a lot of economic pain around the world, there is almost no chance India escapes it. Furthermore, investors tend to repatriate money when things get tough. Most of the money is going to come out of places like India and back into other places like Europe or the United States. The US dollar is considered to be a safe currency, and that might be the only thing people care about at this point.
