Bearish View
- Sell the EUR/USD pair and set a take-profit at 1.0800.
- Add a stop-loss at 1.0920.
- Timeline: 1-2 days.
Bullish View
- Set a buy-stop at 1.0910 and a take-profit at 1.0960.
- Add a stop-loss at 1.0850.
The EUR/USD pair declined as investors reflected on the latest France election and the upcoming US and Germany consumer inflation data. It fell to a low of 1.0870, which was about 57 basis points below the highest point on Monday.
US and Germany Inflation Data
The EUR/USD reacted mildly to Sunday’s France election. The results were as expected as Emmanuel Macron and Marin Le Pen advanced to the next stage of the election. They will face off in less than two weeks, with the winner becoming the country’s president. Early polls showed that Macron is favored to win the election although the situation could change.
The pair will be in the spotlight as the US publishes the latest consumer inflation data on Tuesday. Economists polled by Reuters expect the data to show that the headline consumer inflation in the US roe from 7.9% in February to 8.4% in March. The core CPI, which excludes the volatile food and energy prices, is expected to have increased modestly from 6.4% to 6.6% in the same period.
These numbers will come a day after the New York Fed published the latest inflation expectations data. The poll shows that the public expects that inflation will hit record high as supply chains disruptions converge with elevated energy prices.
Respondents expect that inflation will hit 6.6% in March 2023, up from 6% in February. They also see inflation moderating to about 3.7% in March 2025. The Fed focuses on public expectations because they tend to drive consumer spending.
The other important data to watch will be the German inflation and ZEW surveys. Like in the United States, analysts expect that the German inflation rose to 7.3% as gas prices surged. These numbers will come two days ahead of the latest ECB interest rate decision.
EUR/USD Forecast
The EUR/USD declined as the American inflation expectation rose. On the three-hour chart, the pair moved below the upper side of the descending channel and the 25-day moving average. It also dropped below the important resistance level at 1.0947, which was the lowest level on March 28th. The Stochastic oscillator has moved slightly below the overbought level.
Therefore, the pair will likely keep falling as bears target the lower side of the channel at 1.0835. A move above the resistance at 1.0920 will invalidate this view.
