The Canadian dollar bounced on Wednesday at the ¥99 level, an area that should capture a lot of attention because it has historically been very important. Furthermore, we had initially seen a major push lower when we pierced that level for the first time, so now that we have pulled back to retest this area, a bit of buying pressure would make quite a bit of sense.
At this point, it could come down to the oil market perhaps driving the Canadian dollar higher, or it may just simply be all about the Japanese yen. After all, the Bank of Japan continues to do everything it can to drive down yields, and this means that they are essentially “printing yen.” That works against the value of the currency, and this has been reflected in the markets over the last several weeks. That being said, we had gotten overdone, and this massive pullback has made a certain amount of sense. That pullback allows for people to pick up the trade at lower levels, which is certainly something that looks like we are going to do.
Unless the Bank of Japan suddenly changes its attitude, it is difficult to imagine a scenario where we would see the Japanese yen recover for a longer-term move. Even if we break down below the ¥99 level, I see a lot of support all the way down to at least ¥97, so therefore it is probably only a matter of time before the market bounces. The market is obviously in a bullish move and as a result, I have no interest in trying to short this market until we break down below the 50-day EMA at the very least.
If crude oil starts to rally, then that will more likely than not supercharge this pair, because Canada being a major exporter of oil and Japan importing all of its oil sets up almost perfectly. Because of this, this is a market that I will be paying close attention to, as it looks like oil is trying to support itself again. A move to the highs would make sense, which is near the ¥103 level. Shorting is impossible at this point, but if we do see another breakdown in the yen-related pairs, this might be one worth exploring.
