Bitcoin Forecast: May 2022

Robert Petrucci

BTC/USD began April with positive sentiment and a mid-term high, but as May approaches Bitcoin has once again returned to its bearish mode.

BTC/USD may be about to open its May trading below the 40,000.00 mark. Even if a sudden spurt upwards develops it will have to be strong to create a positive short term outlook for Bitcoin. The biggest and most famous cryptocurrency among the heap still remains ‘champion’, but a return to its bearish trend has likely caused some speculative fatigue among BTC/USD traders.

BTC/USD has stumbled badly in April after beginning the month near a value of 47,400.00. The broad cryptocurrency market has also been overtaken by dark shadows again, and a correlation between the likes of Bitcoin and negative results in the NASDAQ 100 are being seriously discussed, even though they are not proven. Riskier trading assets have certainly seen less speculative buying the past month. The question is when a return of risk appetite, and perhaps even value seekers will start to create upwards momentum.

As of this writing BTC/USD is near the 39,500.00 level and has proven choppy the past few days. A low of nearly 37,660.00 was displayed on the 26th and 27th of April and the last time this value was exhibited was on the 13th of March, yes, essentially when Bitcoin began its two week upwards climb. The high price reached on the 28th of March which drove past the 48,000.00 barrier, led many backers of BTC/USD to potentially believe sunnier days were ahead and the long term bearish trend was dead. This however did not prove to be reality.

Although Bitcoin remains the key asset in the cryptocurrency market it remains under pressure. If the 38,000.00 mark were to prove vulnerable in the short term, this could set off additional fireworks which may ignite further nervous sentiment. The correlation to Bitcoin and the NASDAQ may appear farfetched to many, but a comparison of one year technical charts between BTC/USD and the NASDAQ 100 look eerily similar.

Bitcoin may not be believed as a cornerstone of the financial world by conservative financial institutions or investors, but its trading has mirrored nervousness in the global equity market. The next week of trading is sure to be rather tension packed as investors await the next U.S Federal Reserve interest rate pronouncements. Will BTC/USD be affected?

BTC/USD Outlook for May:

Speculative price range for BTC/USD is 32,100.00 to 50,900.00.

If a speculator wants to pursue more downside price action they should be fully aware that BTC/USD is near important support levels. However, if BTC/USD breaks below the 39,000.00 level and sustains price action below this juncture without technical signals that a reversal is about to occur, further downside could be tested. The 38,500.00 level could be viewed with dangerous suspicion.

BTC/USD has proven in the recent past to stage reversals upwards, when the 38,500.00 vicinity comes into view. Yet, if BTC/USD proves vulnerable and the 38,000.00 mark were to falter, this would certainly set off alarm bells among speculators who may believe lower price action is going to be seen short term. If March lows are broken and the 37,000.00 support level failed, a test of late February prices could be seen.

Speculators who believe BTC/USD will live up to its reputation and provide a strong reversal higher cannot be blamed. However day trading BTC/USD and holding onto Bitcoin as a long term investment are different. Day traders need to choose their leverage and targets carefully. BTC/USD could certainly start to launch upwards and if the 40,000.00 mark is penetrated higher and prices are sustained and a move towards 41,000.00 suddenly erupts, other buyers will be tempted to join the party. A move above the 43,500.00 juncture and a test of 44,000.00 could create additional optimism. BTC/USD can move fast and speculators who are willing to bet on upside may be proven correct, but being able to participate in a real upwards trade instead of merely predicting the move are two distinct beasts.

Bitcoin Monthly Chart

Robert Petrucci
Robert Petrucci has worked in the Forex, commodity, and financial profession since 1993. Important aspects of his work involve risk analysis and advisory services. As an advisor in a Family Office he maintains a conservative approach for wealth management and investments. Robert also works in private finance with investors and companies delivering financial and management services.

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