The West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil market has rallied a bit on Wednesday to break above the top of the candlestick from Tuesday. If you remember, the Tuesday candlestick was what I referred to as a potential “binary trade”, meaning that if we can break above it, the market could go higher. After all, the neutral candlestick suggests that we are in the midst of trying to figure out whether or not momentum will pick up.
Now that we have broken decisively to the upside, the market looks very likely to continue going higher, perhaps reaching towards the $120 level. Given enough time, we could go all the way to the $130 level yet again. The market has been very bullish, but I do not want to see some type of parabolic move, because as you can see, we had recently had one of those, which of course fell apart quite drastically. There is only a certain amount of momentum that can come into a market without it falling apart, so the sustainability of the uptrend is what I am looking for.
Looking at the chart, the 50-day EMA is sitting at the $96.55 level and climbing. As long as we can stay above this indicator, it does suggest that we are still in an uptrend. The size of the candlestick is rather impressive, so I think we will continue to see buyers on every short-term dip. The market has been very noisy but has also been decidedly positive. I have no scenario in which I am willing to short the oil market anytime soon, so looking at dips as potential buying opportunities will continue to be the way to approach the market. That being said, we will eventually run into “demand destruction”, but I do not think we are anywhere near that right now.
Ultimately, this is a market that I think has quite a bit of upward mobility to it, especially as the war in Ukraine rages on. The lack of Russian oil on the open market is going to continue to cause issues, but inflation itself is reason enough to think that oil should continue to go higher. Regardless, this is a market that continues to offer plenty of opportunities for those willing to be patient enough to find value.
