The US dollar went back and forth on Tuesday to show a little bit of hesitation. We had recently broken out of a longer-term consolidation area, and now we are in the midst of an area that had previously been very difficult to get past. Keep in mind that the US dollar is going to be greatly influenced by the Federal Reserve meeting that is going to end on Wednesday.
The question now is not so much as to whether or not the Federal Reserve will hike interest rates, it is more whether or not they sound hawkish going forward. The US dollar has a major influence on almost everything out there, and as a general rule, “If you get the US dollar right, you will get most things right.” This is true against the Singapore dollar, just as it would be true against gold, stocks, or bonds. We will have to see whether or not the Federal Reserve is going to be hawkish or dovish during the press conference, and whether or not it looks like there are more hikes coming.
The Singapore dollar is considered to be a bit of a safety currency like the US dollar is, but it does play second fiddle. In that scenario, it is going to come down to whether or not the US dollar gets a lot of demand. The next 24 hours or so should be rather crucial, so we will see whether or not the USD/SGD pair can break above the 1.3750 level. If it does, then we should see the US dollar continue to appreciate going forward. On the other hand, if we break back down below the 1.36 handle, it is very likely that the market could re-enter the previous consolidation area, initially making a move towards the 50-day EMA. It is a little early to call that decision right now, but I think by the end of the day on Wednesday we should have enough clarity to understand where the market is most likely going to be comfortable. With that being the case, I am going to sit on the sidelines, but this is one that I am watching very carefully for the next 24 hours and have a couple of trigger points that I will pay close attention to.
