This week I will begin with my monthly and weekly forecasts of the currency pairs worth watching. The first part of my forecast is based upon my research of the past 20 years of Forex prices, which show that the following methodologies have all produced profitable results:
- Trading the two currencies that are trending the most strongly over the past 6 months.
- Trading against very strong weekly counter-trend movements by currency pairs made during the previous week.
- Carry Trade: Buying currencies with high interest rates and selling currencies with low interest rates.
Let us look at the relevant data of currency price changes and interest rates to date, which we compiled using a trade-weighted index of the major global currencies:
Monthly Forecast March 2022
For the month of March, I forecasted last week that the EUR/USD currency pair would fall in value. Its performance to date is shown below.
Currency Pair | Forecast Direction | Interest Rate Differential | Performance to Date |
EUR/USD | Short ↓ | +0.25% (0.25% - 0.00%) | +0.17% |
Weekly Forecast 13th March 2022
I made no weekly forecast last week, as there were no sufficiently strong counter-trend price movements over the past week. This week, I forecast that the GBP/SEK currency cross will be likely to rise in value.
The Forex market saw its level of directional volatility decrease last week, with 52% of all the important currency pairs or crosses moving by more than 1% in value. Directional volatility is likely to remain quite strong or even slightly increase over this coming week, as the FOMC will be making a crucial monthly policy release.
Last week was dominated by relative strength in the Euro, and relative weakness in the Japanese Yen.
You can trade our forecasts in a real or demo Forex brokerage account.
Key Support/Resistance Levels for Popular Pairs
I teach that trades should be entered and exited at or very close to key support and resistance levels. There are certain key support and resistance levels that can be watched on the more popular currency pairs this week.
Currency Pair | Key Support / Resistance Levels |
AUD/USD | Support: 0.7238, 0.7207, 0.7082, 0.7006 Resistance: 0.7331, 0.7367, 0.7390, 0.7430 |
EUR/USD | Support: 1.0710, 1.0639, 1.0615, 1.0572 Resistance: 1.0959, 1.1025, 1.1142, 1.1241 |
GBP/USD | Support: 1.3005, 1.2785, 1.2650, 1.2624 Resistance: 1.3141, 1.3195, 1.3273, 1.3316 |
USD/JPY | Support: 116.79, 116.23, 115.53, 114.82 Resistance: 119.04, 119.12, 119.60, 120.00 |
AUD/JPY | Support: 85.27, 84.95, 84.61, 84.21 Resistance: 87.46, 88.43, 89.49, 89.69 |
EUR/JPY | Support: 127.42, 125.66, 125.05, 124.24 Resistance: 128.76, 129.19, 130.04, 130.23 |
USD/CAD | Support: 1.2683, 1.2654, 1.2535, 1.2498 Resistance: 1.2753, 1.2795, 1.2901, 1.2959 |
USD/CHF | Support: 0.9236, 0.9072, 0.9000, 0.8969 Resistance: 0.9370, 0.9387, 0.9438. 0.9470 |
Let us see how trading reversals from one of last week’s key levels could have worked out:
AUD/USD
I had expected the level at 0.7439 might function as resistance, as it had acted previously as both support and resistance. Note how these “flipping” levels can work well. The H1 chart below shows how the price rejected this level with an inside bar near the start of last Monday’s Tokyo session (typically a great time to enter trades in a currency pair involving an Asian time zone currency such as the Aussie), marked by the down arrow in the price chart below. This trade has been very profitable, achieving a maximum positive risk reward ratio of more than 4 to 1 based upon the size of the entry candlestick structure.
That is all for this week. You can trade my forecasts in a real or demo Forex brokerage account to test the strategies and strengthen your self-confidence before investing real funds.