The Bitcoin market has fallen again during the trading session on Thursday to break down below the $40,000 level. We are currently in consolidation, so this should not be a huge surprise. With that being said, it must be noted that the 50 Day EMA has offered a bit of dynamic resistance along the way, so I do believe that we are in a situation where the sellers still have the upper hand. Granted, I also recognize that the area around $36,000 is still very supported, so you need to be cautious simply jumping in and shorting with abandon.
All things being equal, we are in a downtrend, and I think that continues to be the case. At the very least, we are going to consolidate and kill time, which the longer that goes on, the more bullish it would actually be as it would show stability. One thing that financial markets tend to hate is massive amounts of volatility, especially when it is going to the downside. I believe at this point in time, I think Bitcoin is almost impossible to get overly aggressive in, unless of course you are a short-term trader and looking at smaller time frames.
Ultimately, this is a market that I think has to make a bigger move but, in the meantime, we will be building up the necessary momentum to make that happen. Given enough time, I think that we will either break below the $35,000 level to open up fresh selling, or we will turn around and take out the $45,000 level to bring in new buyers. Either way, I think it opens up a roughly $5000 move, but it must be stated that currently, it looks like the market has a much clearer path to the downside. This is especially true considering that monetary policy is about to get rather tight, something that crypto has never had to deal with. Remember, cryptocurrency is far out on the risk spectrum, so traders tend to avoid it when money becomes “expensive.” Ultimately, we are range-bound so if you are a short-term trader this is probably a market that sutured quite well. If you are looking for a bigger move, you probably have all the time in the world to wait until we get a suggestive breakout that you can take advantage of.
