The DAX initially tried to rally a bit during the trading session on Thursday but then collapsed at the 200 day EMA. That being said, the market is likely to see a lot of downward pressure, due to the fact that there are a lot of concerns about the UK and/Russia border. Quite frankly, this is a market that will continue to be very noisy, as the DAX of course being in Germany is going to be very sensitive to a potential armed conflict in the same neighborhood.
Underneath, the €15000 level will be an area of support that we need to pay close attention to, that extends down to the €14,800 level, keeping a bit of a “support zone” that a lot of people will be paying close attention to. With this being the case, it is very likely that the market is going to be trading on the latest headline coming out of that region. Because of this, I cannot suggest hanging on to a position for very long. That being said, I am saying the same thing about most other markets, as they all seem to be moving on the same type of “risk on/risk off” type of scenario.
Given enough time, I do think that this is a market that will eventually have to figure out its momentum one way or the other, but right now it is worth noting that every time we rally, the highs continue to get lower. This suggests that pressure is building to the downside and that the DAX may eventually break down. If we break down below the €14,800 level, that opens up a move to the €14,500 level rather quickly, followed by a move down to the €14,000 level.
One thing is for sure, equities across the world look horrible right now, but these negative markets tend to have massive relief rallies, so that is something worth paying attention to. Ultimately, if we were to break above the 50 day EMA, then it is likely that the market could go looking towards the €16,000 level, but obviously we would need to see some type of good news come out in order to make that happen. All things been equal, this is a market that I think you sell short-term rallies, but I do not know that we get big moves quite yet. If the shooting starts, all bets are off, and we will probably fall through the floor.
