The US dollar fell towards the ₹74.38 level on Wednesday in order to test the 200 day EMA. When you look at this chart, you can see clearly that the 200 day EMA has had a certain amount of influence on this market, so it should not be a surprise at all to see that we have been attracted to it as well. Furthermore, it is interesting to see that the market has pulled back from the 50 day EMA, showing that it is very much a technical market at the moment.
It will be interesting to see what happens with the Indian rupee, because the US dollar has been all over the place. With this being the case, the market will continue to be noisy to say the least, but if we can take out the 50 day EMA above, which is essentially the ₹74.66 level, then the US dollar can in fact continue to try to recover against the rupee. If we get above there, then it is likely that we could go looking towards the ₹75 level in the short term, where I see a little bit of hesitation just waiting to happen. But if we break above there, then it is likely that we could go looking towards the ₹75.50 level.
To the downside, if we break down below the 200 day EMA then the next serious support level is going to be found at the ₹74 level, which extends all the way down to the ₹73.75 level. You can make an argument that the US dollar is currently retesting a bit of an uptrend line, so I would look at the fact that the market is being squeezed between the 50 day EMA and the 200 day EMA as a market that is ready to make a move. Eventually, we will break out of this little area, and I will simply trade the market in that direction as quite often we will see these two moving averages squeezed the market and suggest that we are about to have a rather big move. I think were on the precipice of that happening, and I will simply follow what is going on and build a bigger position as the market moves in my favor.
