GBP/USD Forex Signal: Medium-Term Bullish Momentum

Adam Lemon

Rise in Pound may be slowing favour of commodity currencies.

Wednesday 29th December’s GBP/USD signal was not triggered as none of the key support or resistance levels identified were hit that day.

Today’s GBP/USD Signals

Risk 0.75%.

Trades may only be entered before 5pm London time today.

Long Trade Ideas

  • Go long following a bullish price action reversal on the H1 time frame immediately upon the next touch of $1.3614 or $1.3483.
  • Place the stop loss 1 pip below the local swing low.
  • Move the stop loss to break even once the trade is 25 pips in profit.
  • Remove 50% of the position as profit when the price reaches 25 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to ride.

Short Trade Idea

  • Go short following a bearish price action reversal on the H1 time frame immediately upon the next touch of $1.3709.
  • Place the stop loss 1 pip above the local swing high.
  • Move the stop loss to break even once the trade is 25 pips in profit.
  • Remove 50% of the position as profit when the price reaches 25 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to ride.

The best method to identify a classic “price action reversal” is for an hourly candle to close, such as a pin bar, a doji, an outside or even just an engulfing candle with a higher close. You can exploit these levels or zones by watching the price action that occurs at the given levels.

GBP/USD Analysis

I wrote two weeks ago that the support level at $1.3376 looked likely to be the day’s pivotal point. This was a good call in the sense that while the level did not hold or break very precisely, once the level was broken to the upside, the price continued to rise in bullish swings and has been doing so ever since.

We seem to have a clearer direction in the Forex market as Jerome Powell’s remarks about the Fed’s balance sheet suggested a more dovish tilt to monetary policy, causing the US Dollar, which had already been weakening, to begin selling off more firmly. As for the British Pound, it has been strong for several days, and we see that technically with a clear sequence of higher lows and higher highs being made in this currency pair.

This suggests that it is time to look for long trades, but the problem is that there is a very important US economic data release today in the form of inflation (CPI) data which will be very closely watched and can move the market in the US Dollar if there is a surprise. If there is no surprise, the bullishness will continue.

I will therefore be very happy to take a long trade from a bullish bounce which we might see later at $1.3614, or with a limit order at $1.3483 which might be triggered by a sudden spike down following the US CPI release later.

GBP/USD Signal

Concerning the USD, there will be a release of US CPI (inflation) data at 1:30pm London time. There is nothing of high importance scheduled today concerning the GBP.

Adam Lemon

Adam Lemon began his role at DailyForex in 2013 when he was brought in as an in-house Chief Analyst. Adam trades Forex, stocks and other instruments in his own account. Adam believes that it is very possible for retail traders/investors to secure a positive return over time provided they limit their risks, follow trends, and persevere through short-term losing streaks – provided only reputable brokerages are used. He has previously worked within financial markets over a 12-year period, including 6 years with Merrill Lynch.
Learn more from Adam in his free lessons at FX Academy

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