EUR/USD Forex Signal: Bears Compressing Price Down to $1.1260 Area

Adam Lemon

Last Thursday’s EUR/USD signal was not triggered as there was no bullish price action when the price first reached the resistance level identified at $1.1315.

Today’s EUR/USD Signals

Risk 0.75%.

Trades may only be entered between 8am and 5pm London time today.

Short Trade Ideas

  • Short entry following a bearish price action reversal on the H1 timeframe immediately upon the next touch of $1.1316, $1.1336, $1.1360, or $1.1394.

  • Put the stop loss 1 pip above the local swing high.

  • Adjust the stop loss to break even once the trade is 20 pips in profit.

  • Remove 50% of the position as profit when the price reaches 20 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to ride.

Long Trade Ideas

  • Long entry following a bullish price action reversal on the H1 timeframe immediately upon the next touch of $1.1261 or $1.1250.

  • Put the stop loss 1 pip below the local swing low.

  • Adjust the stop loss to break even once the trade is 20 pips in profit.

  • Remove 50% of the position as profit when the price reaches 20 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to ride.

The best method to identify a classic “price action reversal” is for an hourly candle to close, such as a pin bar, a doji, an outside or even just an engulfing candle with a higher close. You can exploit these levels or zones by watching the price action that occurs at the given levels.

EUR/USD Analysis

I wrote last Thursday that bulls seemed to have the advantage, with buying continuing below $1.1300. I thought that a bullish bounce at the new support level of $1.1315 could produce a good long trade entry signal. I also thought a short trade below $1.1315 could be good but only on a failed retest following the breakdown.

This was a good call insofar as it prevented entry into a failed short trade. I was right about seeing the $1.1315 area as supportive as the main action of the past few days was buying below that level pushing the price up.

We have seen bears, helped by recent strength in the US Dollar, continue to push the price down and compress the price as new lower resistance levels are printed. However, we just get a compression because the support beginning below $1.1300 at about $1.1261 continues to look very firm and make its presence felt. So, we have a close fight between bulls and bears and it is hard to tell who is going to win over the medium term. This is helped by the fact that the EUR is relatively strong just like the USD.

I see the best strategy for today in this currency pair as scalping reversals at key levels, and I suspect the best potential would be a long from $1.1261 or $1.1250. It will be important to monitor any open trade on a short timeframe and to be quite quick to take profits, and to use tight stops.

EUR/USD

Concerning the USD, there will be a release of the ADP Non-Farm Employment Change Forecast at 1:15pm London time, followed by the FOMC Meeting Minutes at 7pm. There is nothing of high importance scheduled regarding the EUR.

Adam Lemon

Adam Lemon began his role at DailyForex in 2013 when he was brought in as an in-house Chief Analyst. Adam trades Forex, stocks and other instruments in his own account. Adam believes that it is very possible for retail traders/investors to secure a positive return over time provided they limit their risks, follow trends, and persevere through short-term losing streaks – provided only reputable brokerages are used. He has previously worked within financial markets over a 12-year period, including 6 years with Merrill Lynch.
Learn more from Adam in his free lessons at FX Academy

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