The natural gas markets have gone back and forth during the session on Thursday, hanging about the $3.80 level. Over the last year or so, I have been asked to do less analysis on natural gas, but quite frankly my email box has been full of questions as to what is going to happen with natural gas next. Retail traders have no idea, nor do some professional traders for that matter, that this contract is based solely upon the United States, meaning that what is going on in Europe or Asia has very little effect. In fact, the United States only exports 12,000,000,000 ft.³ a year, which seems like a lot but it is not.
Currently, Rotterdam gas futures are trading at about nine times what the Henry Hub contract is. That can bring in a little bit of demand but transporting natural gas across the ocean is not easy. Because of this, a lot of retail traders that I have been contacted from have lost a fortune in this contract over the last month or so. It is because they do not understand that they need to pay attention to US weather patterns, and basically ignore what is going on in their own backyard.
If you did not know this, do not be ashamed. I have recently had a conversation with somebody who runs a larger commodity fund who had no idea that natural gas contracts were so localized. He trades millions of dollars, which tells you just how uninformed some people can be. That being said, I felt the need to do this video due to the fact that somebody of you have been losing money as you are watching problems with Vladimir Putin delivering gas to the EU, etc.
Temperatures in the United States should be much milder than initially thought for most of the winter, meaning that the United States, which is absolutely swimming in natural gas, will continue to see lower pricing. We have recently gapped lower, and I do think that we will try to fill that gap as most futures markets will tend to do. I will be shorting this contract of the first signs of exhaustion near the 200 day EMA which happens to be at the top of the gap, right around $4.16. We have seen the high for the winter, as we are trading the January contract already, meaning that before you know it will be trading springtime contracts.
