NASDAQ 100 Forecast: Index Fighting for its Life

Christopher Lewis

We are decidedly in an uptrend and, even though it has been painful, it has been just a slight pullback when you look at the big picture.

The NASDAQ 100 plunged lower during the Friday session as the jobs number came out. The jobs number disappointed, so a lot of selling had been done. Nonetheless, this is a market that I think given enough time will probably continue to go higher, mainly due to the fact that we turned around at support and are hanging on to this trend line that I have drawn on the chart. Yes, we pierced it, but we did not close below there and that is important.

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The 50-day EMA sits just below, and I think that is something that you will have to pay close attention to as well, because the 50-day EMA is so widely followed by traders. That being said, it does not mean that it will be an easy turnaround and that the markets will suddenly shoot to the upside, just that we have more likelihood of not going down. I think we probably have some work to do, but if we can finally take out the highs of the session on Friday, then I believe that is when we will go looking towards the 16,500 level, an area that had been important previously. Ultimately, this is a market that will continue to be very noisy, but keep in mind that there are just a handful of companies that need to move higher in order for the NASDAQ 100 to rally. Because of this, I think you need to keep an eye on the usual suspects such as Apple, Netflix, and Microsoft. If they all rally, it is a good chance that this market will as well.

If we break down below the bottom of the candlestick for the session, then we could see further selling pressure, but right now I do not think that is something that I would be overly worried about. If we do break down, then the trend line will meet somewhere near the 15,000 level, right along with the 200-day EMA. I believe that the 15,000 level is probably the major “floor in the market” currently, as we are decidedly in an uptrend and, even though it has been painful, it has been just a slight pullback when you look at the big picture. A little bit of perspective probably goes a long way here.

NASDAQ 100 Index

Christopher Lewis

Christopher Lewis has been trading Forex for several years. He writes about Forex for many online publications, including his own site, aptly named The Trader Guy.

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