Bullish View
Buy the GBP/USD and set a take-profit at 1.3420.
Add a stop-loss at 1.3200.
Timeline: 1-2 days.
Bearish View
Set a sell-stop at 1.3235 and set a take-profit at 1.3150.
Add a stop-loss at 1.3325.
The GBP/USD pair held steady on Monday morning as the market refocused on a relatively busy week. The pair is trading at 1.3265, which is about 0.80% above the lowest level last week.
Key Data and Central Banks Ahead
The GBP/USD pair is relatively unchanged ahead of a relatively busy week for the sterling and the US dollar. On Tuesday, the UK will publish the latest jobs numbers. Economists expect the data to show that the unemployment rate declined from 4.3% to 4.2% in October. This number will be in par with that of the United States.
On the same day, the US will release the latest producer price index (PPI) data. Economists expect the numbers to show that the country’s factory-gate inflation rose from 8.6% to 9.2% in November. This is notable since the US published strong consumer inflation numbers on Friday. The data revealed that the country’s headline CPI rose to a multi-decade high of 6.8%.
The UK jobs numbers will then be followed by the country’s inflation figures that will come out on Wednesday. Economists expect that the headline CPI rose from 4.2% in October to 4.7%. They also expect the core CPI rose from 3.4% to 3.8%.
The biggest catalyst for the GBP/USD pair will be the Fed and Bank of England (BOE) interest rate decisions that will come out on Wednesday and Thursday, respectively. These will be their most important decisions this year.
The Fed is expected to sound a bit hawkish thanks to the strong US inflation and retail sales numbers. As such, the bank will likely signal that quantitative easing (QE) will end in the first quarter of the year. Also, they expect that the bank will signal that it will hike interest rates in 2022. The BOE, on the other hand, could sound dovish because of the Omicron variant.
GBP/USD Forecast
The GBP/USD pair has bounced back after it declined to a multi-month low of 1.3160. It has moved slightly above the 25-day and 50-day EMA. It is also at the upper side of the Bollinger Bands while the price is slightly below the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level. The price is also slightly above the standard pivot point.
Therefore, the pair will likely keep rising as bulls target the 38.2% retracement level at 1.3420. On the flip side, a drop below 1.3220 will invalidate the bullish view.
