BTC/USD Forex Signal: Bearish After Weekend Flash Crash

Adam Lemon

The price is heading downwards from the resistance level at $49,710.

Last Monday’s BTC/USD signal produced a profitable long trade when the price rejected the support level identified at $56,020 which held the low of the day almost to the exact cent.

Today’s BTC/USD Signals

Risk 0.50% per trade.

Trades may only be entered prior to 5pm Tokyo time Tuesday.

Long Trade Ideas

  • Go long after a bullish price action reversal on the H1 time frame following the next touch of $46,381, $45,261, or $42,651.

  • Place the stop loss $100 below the local swing low.

  • Adjust the stop loss to break even once the trade is $100 in profit by price.

  • Take off 50% of the position as profit when the trade is $100 in profit by price and leave the remainder of the position to run.

Short Trade Ideas

  • Go short after a bearish price action reversal on the H1 time frame following the next touch of $49,710 or $51,912.

  • Place the stop loss $100 above the local swing high.

  • Adjust the stop loss to break even once the trade is $100 in profit by price.

  • Take off 50% of the position as profit when the trade is $100 in profit by price and leave the remainder of the position to run.

The best method to identify a classic “price action reversal” is for an hourly candle to close, such as a pin bar, a doji, an outside or even just an engulfing candle with a higher close. You can exploit these levels or zones by watching the price action that occurs at the given levels.

BTC/USD Analysis

I wrote last Monday that we were likely to see choppy trading in Bitcoin over the day until we got some more decisive news about the omicron variant.

I thought that it was still possible to take a long from a bullish bounce at $56,020 and this turned out to be a good call, producing a profitable trade.

The technical picture has changed dramatically, with Bitcoin falling by more than 25% in value since then, with the most dramatic loss happening on Saturday when a “flash crash” sent the price down by more than 16% in only one hour. This just goes to show you how volatile Bitcoin can be, downwards as well as upwards.

It is notable how often technical support and resistance levels hold in Bitcoin trading, and the sharp drop has seen several former support levels flip to become resistance. The resistance level at $49,710 is a great example of this and has continued to hold firmly over recent hours. It has a lot of power, helped by the fact it is confluent with and just underneath a really big psychological level and round number at $50k.

The short-term price action is clearly bearish. The entire cryptocurrency sector is looking bearish right now, more or less.

I see every reason to expect a continued downwards movement in the price, to at least the support level at $46,381.

I am only looking for short trades until $42,500 is reached. If the price retraces to hit $49,710 and then reverses, I will be very happy to enter a short trade there today.

BTC/USD

There is nothing of high importance scheduled for today regarding the USD.

Adam Lemon

Adam Lemon began his role at DailyForex in 2013 when he was brought in as an in-house Chief Analyst. Adam trades Forex, stocks and other instruments in his own account. Adam believes that it is very possible for retail traders/investors to secure a positive return over time provided they limit their risks, follow trends, and persevere through short-term losing streaks – provided only reputable brokerages are used. He has previously worked within financial markets over a 12-year period, including 6 years with Merrill Lynch.
Learn more from Adam in his free lessons at FX Academy

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