USD/BRL: Speculative Opportunity as Highs are Approached

Robert Petrucci

The USD/BRL has traded slightly higher since the 25th of November, but it remains below values achieved only a couple of days before on the 23rd.

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The USD/BRL is flirting with higher values as it maintains the top of its price range rather well. Intriguingly, from a speculative viewpoint, the USD/BRL is actually below values attained on the 23rd of November, this before the news of the coronavirus variant Omicron made international headlines.

Yes, the USD/BRL did trade higher after hitting a low of 5.5470 approximately on the 25th of November, but the fact that it remains below prices two days prior to this is technically enticing. The price of the USD/BRL as of this writing is near 5.6100.

The USD/BRL has been within a rather solid bullish stance since November the 11th when the Forex pair was trading near 5.3800. This lower mark took place when the USD/BRL had fallen from highs attained on the 3rd of November, when the pair was trading near the 5.6900 level. And it needs to be pointed out the USD/BRL was trading near the 5.7500 mark on the 22nd of October.

The notion the USD/BRL is well below those highs seen in October and November highlight speculative opportunity. However, before traders decide they are going to take a position within the USD/BRL they need to make sure they believe a direction is viable. The USD/BRL has not reacted with the same impact like many of the other major currency pairs demonstrated, while  the past few days has seen the USD has been bought by many safe haven investors the USD/BRL has remained relatively stable.

This underscores the notion the USD/BRL sometimes trades in a manner which can be interpreted as not correlating to other major currencies.  The USD/BRL has actually been tranquil and the lack of a big bullish run upwards the past couple of trading days is suspicious. Traders may be inclined to believe that coronavirus impact regarding the USD/BRL is muted because Brazil has been at the center of coronavirus implications since the advent of the virus becoming a concern over a year and a half ago.

The USD/BRL is within a rather challenging range. If resistance near the 5.6300 mark can be broken higher, the pair could find additional momentum upwards. However traders should not be overly ambitious and perhaps it will prove worthwhile to look for quick hitting trades. Choppy conditions may be abundant near term and traders should be cautious.

Brazilian Real Short-Term Outlook

Current Resistance:  5.6340

Current Support:  5.5720

High Target: 5.7010

Low Target:  5.5430

USD/BRL Chart

Robert Petrucci
Robert Petrucci has worked in the Forex, commodity, and financial profession since 1993. Important aspects of his work involve risk analysis and advisory services. As an advisor in a Family Office he maintains a conservative approach for wealth management and investments. Robert also works in private finance with investors and companies delivering financial and management services.

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