USD/BRL: Short-Term Trend Testing Highs as Resistance Looms

Robert Petrucci

The USD/BRL traversed higher again yesterday and finished its trading within short-term highs, and speculators now need to decide if the trend can be sustained.

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The USD/BRL ended yesterday’s trading near the 5.5300 vicinity, which is a short-term high for the Forex pair. On the 11th and 12th of November the USD/BRL traded at its one-month lows around the 5.3800 ratio. Trading the past week has created a rather incremental bullish trend, but the highs now being tested are within sight of important resistance levels near 5.5500 and 5.5600.

As recently as the 3rd of November the USD/BRL was trading near the 5.6800 level, but after testing this higher realm its resistance proved strong, and the Forex pair reversed lower until hitting its steepest short-term depths in the second week of this month. A look at a one-month chart could give a trader the perception that the USD/BRL is still slightly within the lower realms of its technical range. When trading begins today it will be intriguing to see what happens in the first couple of hours.

The fact the USD/BRL is accomplishing short-term highs may attract additional bullish speculation based on momentum. If support levels near the 5.5100 to 5.5000 marks prove durable, this could be a signal additional upwards force may be generated. The current price realm of the USD/BRL may be within a rather good inflection zone which could produce solid technical consideration as the day progresses, so speculators may want to remain patient.

If the nearby resistance levels of 5.5500 falter and are penetrated higher, speculators could not be blamed for believing a buying trajectory could challenge the 5.5800 ratio. Substantial resistance seems to exist near the 5.6000 level, so short-term traders should not be overly ambitious if they do not have the desire to pursue higher moves based on their technical perceptions.

While the short-term trend has been bullish, if the USD/BRL suddenly demonstrates a stronger selling surge, the 5.5000 mark could prove to be important. If this support level proves vulnerable, short-term traders could not be blamed for setting their sights on the 5.4700 level as a quick hitting goal to cash in profits.

However, the USD/BRL has been choppy the past month and traders should be cautious. The Forex pair has been producing an incremental bullish winning streak and, if early morning prices are sustained today, the pair could have further room to traverse higher.

Brazilian Real Short-Term Outlook

Current Resistance:  5.5500

Current Support:  5.5050

High Target: 5.5950

Low Target:  5.4630

USD/BRL Chart

Robert Petrucci
Robert Petrucci has worked in the Forex, commodity, and financial profession since 1993. Important aspects of his work involve risk analysis and advisory services. As an advisor in a Family Office he maintains a conservative approach for wealth management and investments. Robert also works in private finance with investors and companies delivering financial and management services.

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