Get our trading strategies with our monthly & weekly forecast of currency pairs worth watching using support & resistance for the week of November 15, 2021.
This week we will begin with our monthly and weekly forecasts of the currency pairs worth watching. The first part of our forecast is based upon our research of the past 20 years of Forex prices, which show that the following methodologies have all produced profitable results:
Trading the two currencies that are trending the most strongly over the past 3 months.
Assuming that trends are usually ready to reverse after 12 months.
Trading against very strong weekly counter-trend movements by currency pairs made during the previous week.
Carry Trade: Buying currencies with high interest rates and selling currencies with low interest rates.
Let us look at the relevant data of currency price changes and interest rates to date, which we compiled using a trade-weighted index of the major global currencies:
Monthly Forecast November 2021
For the month of November, we forecasted that the EUR/USD currency pair would fall in value. The performance to date of this forecast is shown below:
Interest Rate Differential
Performance to Date
+0.25% (0.25% - 0.00%)
Weekly Forecast 14th November 2021
Last week, we made no weekly forecast, as there were no unusually strong counter-trend movements last week. We again make no weekly forecast this week, as there were again no strong moves to fade, which is the basis of our weekly trading strategy.
The Forex market saw a strong decrease in its level of volatility last week, with only 11% of all the important currency pairs or crosses moving by more than 1% in value. Directional volatility is likely to remain low next week as there are few high-impact events scheduled.
Last week was dominated by relative strength in the U.S. dollar, and relative weakness in the Canadian dollar and the euro.
You can trade our forecasts in a real or demo Forex brokerage account.
Key Support/Resistance Levels for Popular Pairs
We teach that trades should be entered and exited at or very close to key support and resistance levels. There are certain key support and resistance levels that can be watched on the more popular currency pairs this week.
Key Support / Resistance Levels
Support: 0.7267, 0.7232, 0.7187, 0.7155
Resistance: 0.7341, 0.7390, 0.7430, 0.7439
Support: 1.1394, 1.1371, 1.1321, 1.1297
Resistance: 1.1456, 1.1514, 1.1563, 1.1624
Support: 1.3371, 1.3319, 1.3141, 1.3079
Resistance: 1.3429, 1.3523, 1.3606, 1.3638
Support: 113.30, 113.09, 111.55, 111.23
Resistance: 114.13, 114.46, 115.45, 116.29
Support: 83.02, 82.60, 82.17, 81.90
Resistance: 84.14, 84.35, 84.83, 84.96
Support: 130.03, 129.56, 129.06, 128.63
Resistance: 130.43, 130.64, 131.78, 132.00
Support: 1.2499, 1.2480, 1.2372, 1.2250
Resistance: 1.2571, 1.2605, 1.2688, 1.2747
Support: 0.9198, 0.9172, 0.9072, 0.9000
Resistance: 0.9248, 0.9270, 0.9331, 0.9370
Let us see how trading reversals from one of last week’s key levels would have worked out:
We had expected the level at 83.02 might act as support, as it had acted previously as both support and resistance. Note how these “flipping” levels can work well. The H1 chart below shows how the price action rejected this level with a large near-engulfing candlestick right at the end of last Wednesday’s Asian session (typically one of the best times to trade currency pairs involving Asian currencies such as these) marked by the up arrow in the price chart below.
The trade has so far given a maximum reward to risk ratio of about 4 to 1 based on the size of the entry candlestick structure.
That is all for this week. You can trade our forecasts in a real or demo Forex brokerage account to test the strategies and strengthen your self-confidence before investing real funds.