GBP/USD Forex Signal: Direction Difficult to Predict

Adam Lemon

Last Wednesday’s GBP/USD signal was not triggered as there was no bullish price action when the support level identified at $1.3741 was first reached that day.

Today’s GBP/USD Signals

Risk 0.75%.

Trades may only be entered prior to 5pm London time today.

Short Trade Ideas

  • Short entry following a bearish price action reversal on the H1 time frame immediately upon the next touch of $1.3709 or $1.3769.

  • Place the stop loss 1 pip above the local swing high.

  • Move the stop loss to break even once the trade is 20 pips in profit.

  • Remove 50% of the position as profit when the price reaches 20 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to ride.

Long Trade Idea

  • Long entry following a bullish price action reversal on the H1 time frame immediately upon the next touch of $1.3625, $1.3574, $1.3527, or $1.3502.

  • Place the stop loss 1 pip below the local swing low.

  • Move the stop loss to break even once the trade is 20 pips in profit.

  • Remove 50% of the position as profit when the price reaches 20 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to ride.

The best method to identify a classic “price action reversal” is for an hourly candle to close, such as a pin bar, a doji, an outside or even just an engulfing candle with a higher close. You can exploit these levels or zones by watching the price action that occurs at the given levels.

GBP/USD Analysis

I wrote last Wednesday that the technical picture looked very consolidative, with few key support or resistance levels nearby. The only nearby level which looked as if it might be of any importance was $1.3741 which I thought would probably be hit and might produce a more extended breakdown if breached. This was an OK call as the level was quickly reached, and the price continued to fall but only for about another 30 pips.

The technical picture is not really any clearer now. Price action is quite choppy here and direction looks difficult to predict. At the time of writing, the price is trapped in a very narrow range between $1.3632 and $1.3625 but I do not think a breakout in either direction is going to tell us much.

The fact that there is a very major release due later (the FOMC statement and press conference) which will likely cause volatility in the US dollar makes today’s price movement even harder to forecast.

This is probably not going to be the best currency pair to trade during today’s London session but following the FOMC release we may see a dramatic price spike here which could probably be traded again, so one approach might be to have a limit buy order at $1.3502 and a limit sell order at $1.3709, and hope that the release spikes the price to hit one of these levels.

GBP/USD

Regarding the USD, there will be a release of the ADP non-farm employment change forecast at 12:15pm London time, followed by ISM Services PMI at 2pm and the FOMC Statement and Federal Funds Rate at 6pm with the usual press conference half an hour later. There is nothing of high importance scheduled regarding the GBP.

Adam Lemon

Adam Lemon began his role at DailyForex in 2013 when he was brought in as an in-house Chief Analyst. Adam trades Forex, stocks and other instruments in his own account. Adam believes that it is very possible for retail traders/investors to secure a positive return over time provided they limit their risks, follow trends, and persevere through short-term losing streaks – provided only reputable brokerages are used. He has previously worked within financial markets over a 12-year period, including 6 years with Merrill Lynch.
Learn more from Adam in his free lessons at FX Academy

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