BTC/USD Forex Signal: More Bearish

Adam Lemon

Break below $55k would be another bearish signal.

Last Monday’s BTC/USD signal produced a very profitable short trade from the bearish rejection of the key resistance level identified at $66,234.

Today’s BTC/USD Signals

Risk 0.50% per trade.

Trades may only be entered prior to 5pm Tokyo time Tuesday.

Long Trade Ideas

  • Go long after a bullish price action reversal on the H1 time frame following the next touch of $56,537 or $54,274.

  • Place the stop loss $100 below the local swing low.

  • Adjust the stop loss to break even once the trade is $100 in profit by price.

  • Take off 50% of the position as profit when the trade is $100 in profit by price and leave the remainder of the position to run.

Short Trade Idea

  • Go short after a bearish price action reversal on the H1 time frame following the next touch of $59,959.

  • Place the stop loss $100 above the local swing high.

  • Move the stop loss to break even once the trade is $100 in profit by price.

  • Take off 50% of the position as profit when the trade is $100 in profit by price and leave the remainder of the position to run.

The best method to identify a classic “price action reversal” is for an hourly candle to close, such as a pin bar, a doji, an outside or even just an engulfing candle with a higher close. You can exploit these levels or zones by watching the price action that occurs at the given levels.

BTC/USD Analysis

I wrote last Monday that direction looked uncertain. I was ready to take a long trade from a couple of setups which did not present themselves as opportunities in the end. I also said that a short trade from a reversal at $66,234 was also possible but I would not be comfortable with that as I think any fall from there will be likely to quickly find support. That was not a good call as this bearish reversal did set up and would have provided an excellent short trade opportunity.

It is clear now that Bitcoin has a more bearish technical picture than it did a week ago, as we have seen the sell-off continue and the price get established below the round number at $60k. In fact, the closest key resistance level is confluent with that number after forming just a fraction below it, and a short trade from a bearish reversal there is looking attractive in the context of a developing bearish trend.

The price is currently close to the support level at $56,537 which may provide at least a short-term bullish trade, but any long trade taken here should be managed conservatively as it is quite likely to be a counter trend trade.

If the price breaks down below that support level and the round number at $55k, that would be a bearish sign suggesting a fall to at least the $50k area is likely to happen.

BTC/USD

There is nothing of high importance scheduled for today regarding the USD.

Adam Lemon

Adam Lemon began his role at DailyForex in 2013 when he was brought in as an in-house Chief Analyst. Adam trades Forex, stocks and other instruments in his own account. Adam believes that it is very possible for retail traders/investors to secure a positive return over time provided they limit their risks, follow trends, and persevere through short-term losing streaks – provided only reputable brokerages are used. He has previously worked within financial markets over a 12-year period, including 6 years with Merrill Lynch.
Learn more from Adam in his free lessons at FX Academy

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