One thing I think you can count on is a lot of volatility, so you would be smart to build up a position over time, not jump in with both feet.
The Bitcoin market fell a bit on Wednesday, but we continue to see the 50-day EMA offer a little bit of interest. Because of this, I think it is only a matter of time before we form some type of base that we can bounce from, but the question is whether or not we can do it here, or if we need to go lower. The $55,000 level underneath should be supportive, and I would anticipate that sooner or later we rally towards the $60,000 level. That does not necessarily have to be the case though, and it is possible that we could drop as low as $50,000.
I would love to see this market pull back towards the $50,000 level, because that is a signal to buy more. I understand that Bitcoin can be very volatile and break down quite drastically, but at the end of the day we understand that these are still very early days when it comes to Bitcoin, and we have a lot of institutional money coming into the market these days through the advent of an ETF. That allows a lot of retirement money to come into this market. That being said though, the market is likely to see this through the prism of an investment, so I think it is only a matter of time before we see the overall momentum takeover. The 200-day EMA is also sitting just above the $46,000 level and reaching towards the $50,000 level. That for me offers even more support in that $50,000 range.
To the upside, if we can break above the $60,000 level, we would not only clear a large, round, psychologically significant figure, but it would also break above the top of a shooting star from a couple of days ago. In other words, it would turn that into an “inverted hammer”, which is a very bullish sign once you break the top of it. I do think eventually we could see that happen, but there is a little bit of a “double top” that has thrown a bit of shade on this market. One thing I think you can count on is a lot of volatility, so you would be smart to build up a position over time, not jump in with both feet.