USD/JPY: Bearish Momentum On Reversal from Highs

Robert Petrucci

As of this writing, the USD/JPY is near the 114.000 mark and has produced a slight selloff after retesting long-term highs yesterday.

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The USD/JPY has turned slightly lower today and is traversing fractionally below the 114.000 level. While some speculators may see this as a confirmation that a selloff is finally going to develop and bearish momentum is going to be demonstrated, it might actually be a little too early to try and read too much into the short-term move lower. Yesterday actually saw a retest of long-term highs near the 114.550 ratio, which was also tested on the 15th of October, but before that had not seen these heights since September of 2018.

Risk-on trades appear to be growing in the global equity markets again and the major international indices are seeing gains. Early calls from the US indicate a higher open within the future markets and, if this proves to be a solid signal, it may indicate that selling in the USD/JPY may only be a short-term move. If the Forex pair demonstrates a sustained amount of support near the 113.900 to 113.800 ratios, it may prove to a buying opportunity for speculators who want to wager on additional upside momentum.

In early November of 2017, the USD/JPY traded near the 114.700 ratio, before that in December 2016 and January 2017, the Forex pair traded near the 116.000 and 117.000 levels. This is not written to promise that these higher values will now be attained, but they are highlighted to show the USD/JPY has traded within loftier realms. Global markets remain fragile and behavioral sentiment appears to be reactionary, traders need to be ready for volatile conditions to happen.

If the 114.000 is broken higher short term it may prove to another buying opportunity for speculators who want to target quick-hitting goals.  The 114.000 to 114.400 levels has been a playground the past handful of trading days and it may continue to produce opportunities for those who want to pursue higher price values in the USD/JPY.

Conservative traders may actually want to be momentum buyers in the short term, meaning if the USD/JPY breaks above the 114.000 mark traders may want to enter the market with a long position slightly above this level.  A conservative amount of leverage and a tight stop loss ratio can be used too. If a trader is not overly ambitious and chooses to cash out a winning position with a quick-hitting goal of 114.100 with a take-profit order, this could prove to be a rather interesting speculative wager.

USD/JPY Short-Term Outlook

Current Resistance: 114.200

Current Support: 113.810

High Target: 114.440

Low Target: 113.460

USD/JPY

Robert Petrucci
Robert Petrucci has worked in the Forex, commodity, and financial profession since 1993. Important aspects of his work involve risk analysis and advisory services. As an advisor in a Family Office he maintains a conservative approach for wealth management and investments. Robert also works in private finance with investors and companies delivering financial and management services.

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