USD/INR: Little by Little a Bullish Move Being Demonstrated

Robert Petrucci

The USD/INR has again displayed ability to incrementally climb higher and extend its bullish move; in fact, speculators may believe the Forex pair has gained additional momentum short term.

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The USD/INR is trading near the 75.3000 level in early trading today and it is clearly within sight of challenging important long-term highs. During a climax of price volatility fueled by coronavirus implications in April, the USD/INR achieved a high of 75.5700 momentarily on the 21st of that month. However, this apex price quickly began to reverse and a low of nearly 72.3200 was achieved in the last week of May.

Intriguingly for the USD/INR, the trading parameters and bullish move being displayed now are not being driven by coronavirus concerns. Technically, the trend which has been achieved and started in earnest on the 1st of September, when the USD/INR was trading at nearly 72.9500, has proven durable and strong. Yes, the USD/INR has a history of cyclical reversals, but importantly the move higher which has developed the past month-and-a-half appears to have staying power – at least for the moment.

Certainly the USD/INR can trade lower and important support lurks near the 75.1800 mark and, if this is broken, traders may suspect the 75.1000 to 75.0700 levels are legitimate targets. However, if the USD/INR is able to sustain its price above the 75.2000 juncture over the next two days it may be a signal additional higher realms could soon be tested. Traders should understand the US is celebrating a banking holiday today and volumes will not return to normal transaction levels until tomorrow. Volatility short term may be produced because of the lack of volume the remainder of today.

Traders should use exact entry level orders today to protect themselves against price fills that do not meet their expectations. Conditions in the USD/INR because of the lack of US financial houses could move quickly in either direction. Traders should be ready for moves to the upside, and if they do occur, it is possible reversals will develop which will test temporary support levels. However, until the 75.2000 mark is tested below, movements lower which test the 75.2700 to 75.2300 junctures should not cause too much anxiety while trading volumes remain low.

Speculators may want to continue to look for upside movement from the USD/INR. Looking for slight reversals lower may be the best conservative approach to catch upside movement. While momentum is definitely to the upside, traders should be careful today and understand the Forex pair could prove choppy short term because of the US holiday. However, the trend upwards remains the logical wager for most traders near term to pursue.

Indian Rupee Short-Term Outlook

Current Resistance: 75.3500

Current Support: 75.2000

High Target: 75.6300

Low Target: 75.0700

USD/INR

Robert Petrucci
Robert Petrucci has worked in the Forex, commodity, and financial profession since 1993. Important aspects of his work involve risk analysis and advisory services. As an advisor in a Family Office he maintains a conservative approach for wealth management and investments. Robert also works in private finance with investors and companies delivering financial and management services.

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