The US dollar has been very quiet against the Indian rupee over the last month or so, stretching against the top of the overall consolidation range. At the time of writing, this market is sitting at the ₹75 level, which has been a bit of a cap for buyers. Keep in mind that the reserve Bank of India tends to be very aggressive in its targeting of the exchange rate, so if you are trading the Indian rupee, you do have some special considerations.
Just above, if the US dollar can break the ₹76 level, I believe that we have an opportunity to go looking towards ₹78. At this point, we are essentially stuck between ₹72 and ₹75 in what has been a very nasty and tight consolidation. If you are a short-term trader, it is very possible that you may get an opportunity to play this market back and forth yet again. The 200-week EMA is starting to reach towards the ₹72 level as well, so that might add even more credence to that support.
Although the US dollar has been getting hit against multiple currencies, I am starting to notice a trend in emerging market currencies such as South Africa, Mexico, and of course here in India. It looks as if the US dollar is forming a basing pattern, perhaps ready to take off against EM currencies, bucking the trend against some of its other G10 counterparts. I suspect this probably has a lot to do with supply chain issues, to which most of these emerging markets are highly susceptible. Beyond that, coronavirus numbers in some of these countries are higher than other places, so that has its part to play in the valuation of the currency.
This is another situation where I might be willing to buy the greenback against the EM currencies, in this case the Indian rupee. However, I need to see a daily close above the ₹75 level to get into it, otherwise I think you could probably do quite well going back and forth during the course of the month, but keep in mind that this pair tends to be very slow-moving, so patience will be needed. This is not a market in which you will be getting short-term scalping opportunities, but it certainly can be profitable once you recognize where the RBI allows things to move.
