The USD/CAD is testing lower values not seen since early August as bearish momentum has been able to sustain last week’s downward trajectory.
The USD/CAD is trading below the important 1.25000 juncture this morning. After rapidly declining below the level before going into the weekend and hitting a low of nearly 1.24500 on Friday, the USD/CAD opened trading yesterday and continued to assault its lower depths and hit a mark of approximately 1.24440. As of this writing, the USD/CAD is near the 1.24800 level, after hitting a high of nearly 1.24970 earlier today.
Technical traders will need to look at three-month charts to gain a perspective on the current value of the USD/CAD. In early August and late July, the Forex pair traded within its current vicinity. On the 30th of July, the USD/CAD traded near the 1.24200 juncture, but it should also be remembered that in May and June of this year the pair was traversing within the 1.20000 to 1.21500 range rather comfortably.
While technical traders who refuse to look at news events as a factor might not want to hear about it, the fact that energy prices are on the rise and the knowledge that Canada is a major exporter of crude oil and natural gas is certainly a factor within the price of USD/CAD. The broad Forex market has actually been seeing a stronger USD in many cases against other major currencies, and the intriguing prospect that the Canadian dollar is not correlating and is actually the stronger currency makes for a dynamic trading environment short term. The question is how long the USD/CAD can produce results which do not correlate to the broad market.
Technically, if the USD/CAD continues to sustain its price below current resistance levels near the 1.25000 level it could prove to be a significant bearish indicator. However, due to the considerable volatility displayed in the USD/CAD the past week, traders should expect the possibility for rather fast reversals higher on occasion.Nervous conditions technically combined with rather exuberant market conditions in the energy sector will likely cause a rather choppy trading range, but there is no denying the trend has been a downward trajectory for the USD/CAD.
On the 20th of September, the USD/CAD was trading near the 1.29000 juncture, which serves as a prime example for speculators to contemplate the potential volatility the Forex pair can produce in the span of a few weeks. If current support levels near the 1.24650 to 1.24550 levels begin to be challenged, traders may believe the 1.24400 mark can be targeted. If this lower support ratio sees a test in the short term, it is conceivable the USD/CAD could target lower values near the 1.24200 juncture.
Canadian Dollar Short-Term Outlook
Current Resistance: 1.25200
Current Support: 1.24420
High Target: 1.25550
Low Target: 1.23860