The NASDAQ 100 has rallied rather significantly during the course of the trading session to break above the top of a couple of shooting stars, which had formed on both Tuesday and Wednesday. This is a major breakout of resistance, and therefore I think we have much further to go. Now that we have made that move, it is very likely that the NASDAQ 100 will continue to see plenty of upward pressure. After all, the main drivers of the NASDAQ 100 are all of the “Wall Street darlings” that everybody else buys. In other words, think of Facebook, Amazon, and Facebook.
All things been equal, this is a market that has been in a bullish run for quite some time, and I just do not see an opportunity to short it anytime soon. The 50 day EMA underneath should continue to offer plenty of support, as it sits at the $15,135 level. Below there, then the market is likely to see the 14,500 level as the absolute floor in the market, so therefore you simply cannot short this market anytime soon. After all, we are in an uptrend and have been for what seems like a lifetime, and I just do not see how that changes in the near future. Ultimately, if we do break down below the 14,500 level, I might be a buyer of puts but that is as aggressive as I get to the downside in US indices.
To the upside, the 16,000 level is the most obvious target but at the end of the day I do not know that it is really that big of a deal to suggest that as it is not that far away from here. In fact, it is a mere 270 points or so. The market will continue to be very volatile, but as we rip through earnings season, the very likely that we will continue to see plenty of buyers out there, as this is a market that favors the upside quite drastically, and therefore I do not think we are looking at a scenario that suggests anything other than a “buy on the dips” type of attitude, which is what we have been the case going back at least 13 years to the Great Financial Crisis. I do believe that ultimately will the NASDAQ 100 will not only at 16,000 above, but it will continue to go even higher than that.
