USD/ZAR: Bullish Teeth But Speculators May Desire Downside

Robert Petrucci

The USD/ZAR remains within the upper realms of its bullish run, but an apparent short-term inability to climb higher may entice skeptical bearish speculators.

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The 15.0000 ratio for the USD/ZAR continues to act like a lightning rod as the Forex pair traverses within the vicinity of this important psychological level. A high of nearly 15.16000 was attained yesterday, but the USD/ZAR has experienced a reversal lower since reaching this mark. Yesterday’s upward movement tested values not seen since the 23rd of August, but were not able to penetrate the upper tier of prices attained between the 19th and 23rd of the past month when a high of nearly 15.40000 was challenged.

Speculators who believe the USD/ZAR has been overbought may be enticed by the higher levels being demonstrated and want to pursue bearish positions. While the 15.00000 mark is important, it is not support for the Forex pair, and the mark of 14.95000 should be watched. If this lower mark is tested short term, it may indicate that additional selling could be demonstrated which will target the 14.90000.

Global markets are in a fragile condition as financial houses have proven they are nervous the past week of trading. These results have been in evidence on major equity indices and in Forex. The USD/ZAR has been within the grasp of a bullish trend and, although a higher price realm has certainly been tested recently, some traders may still cling to the notion that lower values are possible in the near term. Swift reversals should be expected by traders in both directions which test ranges.

Traders should take a look at one-month charts even if they are short-term market participants. It appears the 14.90000 could be a place which could spark a rash of volatile trading if it is approached today or tomorrow. If this lower level were to falter and see sustained trading below its depth, perhaps the USD/ZAR could traverse to a range of 14.78000 to 14.85000. However, the upper realms of the USD/ZAR may still have some bullish momentum which it can be demonstrated.

If the USD/ZAR remains above the 14.95000 ratio in the short term, bullish speculators may have a reason to try and wager on additional upside price action. The ability of the USD/ZAR to trade above the 15.00000 mark has been consistent enough to create the technical perspective that higher values can be attained in the near term. Yesterday’s test of 15.16000 could be a warning shot that higher bullish values may be exhibited and that the trend will remain intact.

South African Rand Short-Term Outlook

Current Resistance: 15.11000

Current Support: 14.95000

High Target: 15.18000

Low Target: 14.87000

USD/ZAR

Robert Petrucci
Robert Petrucci has worked in the Forex, commodity, and financial profession since 1993. Important aspects of his work involve risk analysis and advisory services. As an advisor in a Family Office he maintains a conservative approach for wealth management and investments. Robert also works in private finance with investors and companies delivering financial and management services.

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