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USD/MXN: Consolidated Range and Legitimate Fears of Breakout

Since the 1st of September, the USD/MXN has essentially straddled a rather tight price range and speculators have reasons to worry about a breakout.

As of this morning, the USD/MXN is trading around the 19.92000 vicinity. The Forex pair has created a rather consolidated trading mode since the 1st of September. Essentially the USD/MXN has been within a realm of 19.90000 to 19.99000 with the occasional outlier taking place. The pair was trading at a high of nearly 20.45500 on the 20th of August. Prior to that high, the USD/MXN was trading near the low of 19.83000 level on the 13th of August.

The highs and lows are mentioned from the past month of trading to illustrate the USD/MXN does create a rather steady dose of volatility for traders. The fact that the past week of price action has been stable is a potential reason to believe values will not remain within a steady range and that a breakout may occur sooner rather than later. Experienced traders of the USD/MXN can certainly note that the Forex pair has consistently ran into staunch support near the 19.83000 to 19.80000 vicinity for a long duration.

Technically, the USD/MXN certainly looks like it is flirting with long-term low water marks again. The inability to break past the 19.80000 vicinity may cause some speculators to look at current price action and consider getting their buying positions ready if nearby support levels are challenged short term. Traders certainly cannot be faulted for being skeptical about the current lows of the USD/MXN and doubting the durability of this lower realm.

The 20.00000 mark within the USD/MXN has acted as a definite psychological level spurring on a wide stream of programmed trading it appears. The level has been a magnate for trading and is currently acting as a slightly higher resistance level, which if penetrated could certainly spur on bullish activity.

The recent consolidation of the USD/MXN should be treated carefully. Until support levels below the 19.89000 mark are punctured lower and price action can be sustained within this vicinity for a confident amount of time, there is reason to believe speculative buying positions near support may actually continue to produce slight reversals higher. However, traders should not get overly ambitious with their buying positions either. Until resistance is burst, trading may remain within a tight range. The question is how long the consolidation will remain.

Mexican Peso Short Term Outlook

Current Resistance: 19.97500

Current Support: 19.88000

High Target: 20.09000

Low Target: 19.83000

USD/MXN

Robert Petrucci
About Robert Petrucci
Robert Petrucci has worked in the Forex, commodity, and financial profession since 1993. Important aspects of his work involve risk analysis and advisory services. As an advisor in a Family Office he maintains a conservative approach for wealth management and investments. Robert also works in private finance with investors and companies delivering financial and management services.
 

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