As of this morning, the USD/INR is trading near the 73.6000 level as the pair continues to traverse within a slightly higher realm of its short-term trading cycle. Technically, taking into consideration a mid-term viewpoint, the USD/INR can be argued to still be within the lower depths of its three-month price action. However, after accomplishing a significant low near the 72.8700 level the end of August, the USD/INR has met stiff support and incrementally climbed higher.
While technical traders may proclaim the recent price action as a reversal which was to be expected, fundamental traders may point at the broad market nervousness which has shown signs of rising in global equities and their indices. Technically, the USD/INR is still traversing within the realms of its bearish range when looking at mid-term results and if the Forex pair is able to sustain its current prices, there is reason to suspect a healthy dose of choppy results should be expected near term.
If the combination of rather nervous global sentiment continues to be felt within the broad markets, this may foster the notion that financial houses will keep their eyes on safe havens. The USD is a recognized safe haven asset. Yet, because of the recent economic concerns via data and proposed spending packages in the US, this doesn’t exactly merit a strong USD stance, which means the trading landscape should be expected to be complex in the coming days. The rather strange combination of nervousness in the US and the rather stellar bearish trend of the USD/INR the past couple of months is not an easy puzzle to solve for short-term expectations.
However, the mixed picture of technical perspective and nervous sentiment may allow short-term speculators an opportunity to search for quick-hitting trades which take advantage of choppy conditions. If current resistance levels continue to produce durable results near the 73.6600 to 73.7100 levels, this may prove an opportunity to short the USD/INR and look for slight downturns.
If support levels near the 73.5100 to 73.4500 marks prove adequate, these areas could mean that higher reversals will occur when the lower levels are tested. In the short term, traders should be careful in the USD/INR as consolidation may turn out to be rather short-lived and volatility could occur.
Indian Rupee Short-Term Outlook
Current Resistance: 73.7100
Current Support: 73.5100
High Target: 73.8400
Low Target: 73.3500
