Longer-term, this is a market that continues to see a lot of noise to say the least, but we are still looking very bullish in general.
The NASDAQ 100 has rallied significantly during the course of the trading session on Thursday to reach towards the previous uptrend line. Now that we are sitting just below, the market is likely to continue to go higher, perhaps reaching towards the 15,600 level. We also had bounced from the 50 day EMA, so that of course is something worth paying close attention to.
The NASDAQ 100 of course is a market that continues to show a lot of promise, as growth stocks continue to attract a lot of attention. In a low rate environment, a lot of the “Wall Street darlings” such as Tesla, Microsoft, Apple, and the like continue to go higher. If that is going to be the case, then the NASDAQ 100 will have to go higher, because there is only about seven stocks continue to be a majority of the driver. At this point in time, short-term pullbacks will continue to be buying opportunities, based upon value more than anything else. At this juncture, the 14,800 level underneath should be support. With that being the case, the market is more than likely going to continue to find that as a bit of a “floor”, and therefore I look at that as a major inflection point.
If we were to drop down below that level, then it is likely that I will be a buyer of puts, but I want short this market as the Federal Reserve will bend over backwards to save Wall Street at the first signs of trouble. If we do break down below that level, then I think the market probably goes looking towards the 14,000 level which is just right around the 200 day EMA.
On the other hand, if we were to turn around a breakout above the candlestick from last Friday, then I think the market can continue to go much higher, at that point in time the market will then more than likely go looking towards the 16,000 level. The market has been in a long-term uptrend, so as things stand right now, it is very likely that this is a market that has just done what is known as a “throw over”, or a false break down from the trendline. Longer-term, this is a market that continues to see a lot of noise to say the least, but we are still looking very bullish in general.