In general, gold suddenly looks a lot less interesting than it did just a few sessions ago.
Gold markets got absolutely crushed on Tuesday as the liquidity came back into the market. After all, the market had Labor Day to think about on Monday, keeping American and Canadian traders away, and the underlying floor trading closed. With that, the Tuesday candlestick was of course much more important than the Monday one, and now that we have broken through the 200 day EMA, it looks as if the $1800 level is trying to offer a little bit of support.
Candlesticks like this do not happen out of the blue, and I think if we break down below the bottom of the candlestick, the market could drop quite drastically. In that scenario, we could be looking at a move towards the $1775 level, maybe even all the way down to the $1750 level rather quickly. Yes, I see that there is a lot of noise underneath, and that noise typically will slow the markets in general. However, this is about the US dollar, and it should be noted that the greenback certainly made its presence known during the trading session.
Going forward, you will have to pay close attention to the US Dollar Index, and whether or not interest rates continue to climb or maybe the bond market starts to attract a lot of inflows? Either way, this is a candlestick formation over the last couple of candlesticks that is a “double high lower low” type of formation, which is not quite an engulfing bearish candlestick, but it means the same thing. At this point, pay close attention to the US Dollar Index, and whether or not we break down below the bottom of the candlestick for the trading session on Tuesday, because that should open up quite a bit of negativity.
To the upside, we have to wipe out this candlestick to get bullish again. I would not be a buyer down here, and I do think that once we break above the $1835 level, it would bring a lot of confidence back in this market but notice how we have gotten crushed every time we have tried to break above that area. That is something that the market has not forgotten, so without a doubt is something that you should be paying close attention to. In general, gold suddenly looks a lot less interesting than it did just a few sessions ago.