EUR/USD Forex Signal: Bearish Below 1.1813

Adam Lemon

The US dollar has been rising so far this week.

Last Thursday’s EUR/USD signal was not triggered as there was no bearish price action when the resistance level at 1.1855 was first reached that day.

Today’s EUR/USD Signals

Risk 0.75%.

Trades must be taken before 5pm London time today only.

Short Trade Ideas

  • Short entry following a bearish price action reversal on the H1 time frame immediately upon the next touch of 1.1831 or 1.1858.

  • Place the stop loss 1 pip above the local swing high.

  • Adjust the stop loss to break even once the trade is 20 pips in profit.

  • Take off 50% of the position as profit when the price reaches 20 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to run.

Long Trade Ideas

  • Long entry following a bullish price action reversal on the H1 time frame immediately upon the next touch of 1.1812 or 1.1783.

  • Place the stop loss 1 pip below the local swing low.

  • Adjust the stop loss to break even once the trade is 20 pips in profit.

  • Take off 50% of the position as profit when the price reaches 20 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to run.

The best method to identify a classic “price action reversal” is for an hourly candle to close, such as a pin bar, a doji, an outside or even just an engulfing candle with a higher close. You can exploit these levels or zones by watching the price action that occurs at the given levels.

EUR/USD Analysis

I wrote last Thursday that the technical picture had become more bullish, with the price established within a relatively symmetrical bullish price channel, so I was looking for a long trade from a bullish bounce at either 1.1833 or 1.1813.

This was a good call insofar as the price rose firmly that day, so I was correct to be looking to the long side. However, the price did not retrace enough that day to reach either of my support levels.

The technical picture, at least over the medium-term, is looking quite different now – more bearish. The price is sitting heavily on the support level at 1.1813 which looks liable to break down soon, after moving down all week. This week has seen safe-haven currencies such as the USD make gains.

I think that the best approach worth taking towards trading this currency pair today will be to wait for two consecutive lower hourly closes below 1.1813, with an initial profit target at the next support level which is located at 1.1783.

Although the bearish set-up looks clear and likely to arrive, keep in mind that we are due the monthly ECB policy release about halfway through the London session, which will probably cause some volatility and perhaps a strong counter-trend spike, so be careful.

EUR/USD

Concerning the euro, ECB will be releasing its Monetary Policy Statement and Refinancing Rate at 12:45pm London time, followed by the ECB press conference 45 minutes later. Regarding the USD, there will be a release of unemployment claims data at 1:30pm.

Adam Lemon

Adam Lemon began his role at DailyForex in 2013 when he was brought in as an in-house Chief Analyst. Adam trades Forex, stocks and other instruments in his own account. Adam believes that it is very possible for retail traders/investors to secure a positive return over time provided they limit their risks, follow trends, and persevere through short-term losing streaks – provided only reputable brokerages are used. He has previously worked within financial markets over a 12-year period, including 6 years with Merrill Lynch.
Learn more from Adam in his free lessons at FX Academy

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