The USD/TRY has proven to be a rather speculative asset the past few months for traders who like volatility and believe they can correctly choose technical direction. On the 11th of August, the USD/TRY was trading near a high of almost 8.68000 and threatening highs seen in late June of 8.80000. However, since the highs achieved on the 11th of August, the USD/TRY has actually been able to produce a significant reversal and, as of this morning, the Forex pair is hovering over important mid-term support levels.
The USD/TRY is near the 8.33000 value and the pair is once again testing lows seen in early August and the second week of June. While short-term support can be considered to be about 8.32000 to 8.31000, the marks traders will watch closely if the levels begin to look vulnerable are the 8.28000 to 8.27000 junctures. If those lower values prove to be weak, the USD/TRY could actually begin to test prices not seen since May.
The USD/TRY has proven in the past few weeks of trading that it is not a simple pair to wager. While some speculators who carry a certain bias against the rather aggressive mandates carried forth by the Turkish government regarding its economic policy may have legitimate reasons for criticism, the USD/TRY is not a one-way trade. The reversal off of highs seen only three weeks ago highlights the need for solid risk-taking tactics.
Speculators who believe the USD/TRY has seen too much bearish momentum may decide to be buyers at the current prices levels and seek resistance levels above which they feel are realistic. However, because the short-term trend is threatening to turn into a mid-term venture, traders need to have all their stop loss calculations working properly. If the USD/TRY continues to sell off, it is conceivable the 8.20000 level is a real target.
Traders who do want to buy and go against the short-term trend should not get overly greedy. If they are able to buy the USD/TRY near the 8.33000 mark, traders should contemplate quick-hitting take profits until the pair shows a serious desire to reverse its trend. Yes, the USD/TRY remains a highly speculative wager and traders need to understand the sudden volatility which can occur, but it remains an attractive landscape for price action.
Turkish Lira Short-Term Outlook:
Current Resistance: 8.37400
Current Support: 8.31700
High Target: 8.43500
Low Target: 8.25500
