USD/INR: Polite, Steady Short-Term Bearish Trend Displayed

Robert Petrucci

The USD/INR is within sight of one-month technical lows as an incremental and steady bearish trend has taken hold.

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The USD/INR is trading slightly above a one-month technical low as the Forex pair is near the 74.3000 juncture early today. On the 29th of July, the USD/INR was trading near the 74.2000 value and then experienced a reversal higher to around 74.4500. Importantly, though, is the observation that resistance levels continue to demonstrate a rather progressive decrease. The 74.4600 ratio now looks to be a rather durable higher level as resistance within the USD/INR.

Only a couple of weeks ago the USD/INR was trading near a momentary high slightly over the 75.0000 mark. The Forex pair has a habit of delivering fairly solid trends and the movement downwards since reaching the 75.0000 apex is clear. The USD/INR is hovering within shouting distance of important mid-term lows and, if the lower bearish prices are challenged, it may draw more speculative selling into the mix.

Current support is near the 74.2600 vicinity and this level was punctured a couple of times yesterday.  If this nearby support level proves vulnerable and the USD/INR can sustain values below the 74.2400 ratio, it will certainly ignite a belief the 74.2000 mark could fall. The last time the USD/INR displayed a real ability to traverse lower than 74.2000 was in June. It must be remembered that in mid-June, the USD/INR, which had already seen slight bullish action since the end of May, suddenly erupted higher in a violent motion.

Technically, the USD/INR remains distant from its price action of mid-June. If the current short-term bearish trend remains a factor, speculators cannot be blamed for conceiving the notion that there is further room lower to be explored. The USD/INR is a frequent participant of volatile trading and it has the ability to produce rather impressive spikes. However, the trading within the Forex pair since the 21st of July has been rather polite.

Speculators may be tempted to sell the USD/INR under the present technical conditions. Cautious traders may want to wait for slightly higher reversals. However, a selling position near the 74.3000 to 74.3200 junctures does appear to be a rather logical speculative wager. Traders who are conservative and use a small amount of leverage could set goals of 74.2800 to 74.2600 as take profit goals.

Indian Rupee Short-Term Outlook:

Current Resistance: 74.3570

Current Support: 74.2550

High Target: 74.4600

Low Target: 74.1660

USD/INR

Robert Petrucci
Robert Petrucci has worked in the Forex, commodity, and financial profession since 1993. Important aspects of his work involve risk analysis and advisory services. As an advisor in a Family Office he maintains a conservative approach for wealth management and investments. Robert also works in private finance with investors and companies delivering financial and management services.

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