As you can see on the longer-term weekly chart, the United States dollar has been very range-bound against the Indian rupee for roughly 2 years. Ultimately, this is a market that I think will continue to see more of this chop, but I would keep an eye on the ₹75 level, because if we can close above there on the weekly chart, then it is likely the market may make a serious attempt to break out to the upside. If we can clear the ₹75.61 level, then it is likely that we can continue to go much higher. Ultimately, that would have this market breaking out of the range that we have been in, giving the possibility of a move towards the ₹78 level based upon the measured move.
Keep in mind that the Indian rupee has suffered at the hands of the coronavirus issues that have come into play, as the outbreak in India has been absolutely horrible. That has a major influence on what happens with the economy in the currency, so it is not a huge surprise to see that the US dollar has rallied quite significantly against the Indian rupee, as the economy has suffered at the hands of shutdowns. It is worth noting recently that the US dollar has softened against other currencies, so if it really starts to fall apart, it is possible that we could see a bit of a knock-on effect over here.
A breakdown below the ₹74 level would more than likely send this market towards the 50-week EMA and then the ₹72.50 level underneath, which is massive support going back almost 2 years for this range. Obviously, if the market were to break out of this range in one direction or the other, then it becomes a much simpler situation where you are trading the trendy move. That being said, the Indian rupee is highly manipulated by the Indian central bank, so more likely than not they will try to keep the rupee in this range as the economic turnaround in India is still threatened. The last thing they need is a strengthening rupee to make Indian exports very expensive at a time when they are trying to get back up off of their knees. In general, I expect more of the same, but am keeping an eye on that move to the upside if things get worse.
