You have to look to the upside, because there is nothing else you can do and expect to make money.
The NASDAQ 100 rallied significantly on Monday to break above the 15,600 level. At this point, the market is likely to find buyers on dips, so I think that is essentially what you are waiting on: small pullbacks that you can take advantage of value. This is a market that also has a massive uptrend line underneath, and then has the 15,000 level offering support underneath there. After that, you also have the 50-day EMA reaching towards that same level, so we should continue to see plenty of buyers.
Pay close attention to the risk appetite of traders around the world, as the NASDAQ 100 is highly sensitive to that. Furthermore, pay close attention to interest rates in the 10-year note, because if those interest rates continue to drop, that should offer reasons for traders to get involved in the NASDAQ 100 as the so-called “growth stocks” tend to do well in those scenarios. The market is one that you cannot sell, but if we were to break down below the uptrend line and the 50-day EMA, then you have to take a serious look at some alternate strategies.
If we do break down below both of those areas, then it is likely that I will be a buyer of puts, perhaps reaching towards the 14,500 level, and then after that to the 14,000 level. This is a market in which you have to be cautious, because the Federal Reserve will do whatever it can to lift Wall Street, and any time that there is a significant amount of selling pressure, the Federal Reserve will loosen monetary policy or do something in the bond market to push stock markets higher. Civil jawboning sometimes will do the trick, and traders continue to feed into that. In fact, one could make an argument that the Federal Reserve is essentially stuck where they are with this feedback loop. So, you have to look to the upside, because there is nothing else you can do and expect to make money. Yes, someday there will be a massive selloff, but that is not going to happen today, nor will it happen anytime soon.