USD/ZAR: Tight Range as Bear Signals May Provide Opportunity

Robert Petrucci

The USD/ZAR traversed slightly higher in early trading this morning and nearby resistance may prove enticing for speculators.

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The past month of trading for the USD/ZAR has produced rather choppy results. After producing a high of nearly 14.51000 on the 2nd of July, then stumbling lower on the 6th to about 14.16000, the USD/ZAR has essentially rehashed these junctures the past few trading sessions. On the 8th of July, the USD/ZAR reached an apex of approximately 14.45000 and then faltered again and touched the 14.16000 mark very briefly before going into the weekend.

Upon opening this morning, the USD/ZAR has displayed an ability to track higher again, but this time the value attained has thus far been a height of 14.37000, and this is where things may prove to be intriguing for speculators. Short-term recent highs attained in the USD/ZAR have not been able to seriously challenge higher resistance levels made previously.

Technically, it appears that resistance levels may have incrementally lowered fractionally. Bearish traders should keep their eyes on existing resistance levels and, if the 14.37000 to 14.39000 marks prove durable, this could indicate that further selling pressure could develop. Last week’s test of lows near the 14.16000 juncture, which took place twice, may be an indication that support levels are not only being targeted but may become vulnerable.

Like many other major currencies teamed against the USD, the USD/ZAR has seen rather bullish trading the past month. On the 4th of June, the Forex pair was near the 13.41000 juncture. The high produced on the 2nd of July near the 14.51000 value may prove to be important resistance. While the past month of trading has certainly been upwards in many respects, the USD/ZAR has actually enjoyed a long-term bearish trajectory.

The question is if the month-long bullish move higher is finally running out of power and if the bearish path can be re-established. Traders should not get overly greedy if they want to pursue selling positions, but they cannot be blamed for believing that lower prices may be exhibited in the near term.

Selling the USD/ZAR upon slight moves higher may prove to be worthwhile. If nearby resistance levels can be sustained and proven adequate near the 14.39000 to 14.41000 ratios, bearish traders may feel that seeking short positions aiming for close support junctures could prove productive. The USD/ZAR has certainly been volatile in recent weeks, so traders should be conservative with the amount of leverage they use to pursue their trading goals.

South African Rand Short-Term Outlook:

Current Resistance: 14.39000

Current Support: 14.31000

High Target: 14.45000

Low Target: 14.16000

USD/ZAR

Robert Petrucci
Robert Petrucci has worked in the Forex, commodity, and financial profession since 1993. Important aspects of his work involve risk analysis and advisory services. As an advisor in a Family Office he maintains a conservative approach for wealth management and investments. Robert also works in private finance with investors and companies delivering financial and management services.

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