The USD/TRY has spiked higher in early trading this morning. As of this writing, the Forex pair is near the 8.60000 level, after opening around the 8.54000 mark. After a couple of weeks of relative calm within the USD/TRY, following the Turkish central bank keeping its interest rate policy intact and pointing towards creeping inflation, the Forex pair has proven volatile this morning.
Resistance near the 8.64000 juncture should be monitored closely; if this level proves vulnerable and the USD/TRY continues to press higher, traders may begin to target the loftier prices displayed from the middle of June until late in the second week of July. The USD/TRY remains near troubling highs and, although Turkey’s central bank took what many feel was an appropriate stance a couple of weeks ago, questions remain about the overall health of the Turkish economy.
The USD/TRY did trade near lows of 8.49000 on the 16th of June, which followed the pronouncements from the central bank. However, the past week-and-a-half of trading has seen the 8.60000 level come into view several times with higher moves, then followed by reversals lower. Once again, technically, the USD/TRY is testing this important juncture and speculators need to use their risk-taking tactics appropriately. Adequate stop-loss orders for those who want to be buyers of the USD/TRY are asked to consider slightly wider than normal ratios, but to do this safely a conservative amount of leverage is needed when wagering on the Forex pair to move higher.
The USD/TRY does look like an attractive buying opportunity for speculators on slight reversals lower. This morning’s price action was swift and traders of the USD/TRY need to understand that this is a currency pair with the capability to produce sudden spikes which can prove very costly if solid risk management has not been used.
If the USD/TRY does move above the 8.60000 level and sustains this juncture near term, it would be a potential technical indicator that higher junctures will be tested. However, after enduring a violent move higher already today, looking for another rocket ship upwards may be a difficult storyline to develop. Traders need to be patient with the USD/TRY and pursue their buying positions in a cautious manner and not be overly greedy as they pursue upwards momentum.
Turkish Lira Short-Term Outlook:
Current Resistance: 8.64000
Current Support: 8.55000
High Target: 8.74000
Low Target: 8.53500
