By doing so, it suggests that we are going to see the market continue to go higher over the longer term, which makes quite a bit of sense as people are looking at the demand as picking up due to the fact that the world’s economies are all opening up. That being said, the market is likely to see any dip at this point in time as potential value, as the demand for crude oil is certainly going to continue.
All things been equal, I think that there are plenty of opportunities underneath to pick up value, especially near the $70 level. The 50 day EMA is also reaching towards the $70 level, so I think at this point in time there will be plenty of upward pressure.
If we can break above the $75 level, then I think we go looking towards the $77.50 level, which is the “measured move” of the ascending triangle that we recently had broken out of. Furthermore, I do not think that we stop at the $77.50 level, but there will be a certain amount of technical importance to it so we may at least slowdown. There are a lot of drivers for crude to go higher, not just the reopening play. After all, there was a serious lack of production during the pandemic, and now that the world has worked through the excess supply, we suddenly find ourselves in a situation where you have tight supply, driving prices up. Because of this, oil is likely to continue going higher but keep in mind that looking out several months, prices are actually into reading into something known as “backwardation”, suggesting that perhaps we only have so far to go.
At this point, I see no reason to try to short this market, but if we did break down below the $65 level it would be absolutely horrible for this market and could send it into a much more negative tone and perhaps cause the overall trend to change. Right now, there is so much consensus in the upside that it is difficult to imagine that we will suddenly change.
