USD/ZAR: Resistance in Sight as Bearish Trend Turns Fragile

Robert Petrucci

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The USD/ZAR has incrementally risen the past few days as sentiment has become risk-averse before tonight’s U.S Federal Reserve FOMC Policy Statement. Technically, the USD/ZAR is traversing slightly below important resistance levels demonstrated in late May as the Forex pair has seen its bearish trend erode slightly. However, the word ‘slightly’ needs to be highlighted.

In actuality, the USD/ZAR remains within the stronger grasp of its long-term bearish trajectory which it has achieved. To gain a proper perspective on the trend of the USD/ZAR, short-term traders are urged to take a look at a three-month chart. The USD/ZAR still remains within the lower realms of its price range and, unless the Forex pair suddenly breaks above the 14.00000 juncture and sustains it price higher, traders may not want to flee their bearish perspectives regarding the USD/ZAR quite yet.

Technically, the USD/ZAR has certainly moved higher the past few trading sessions, but this has likely been the result of financial houses guarding their positions with pro-USD positions in case the U.S Fed were to suddenly emerge more hawkish tonight regarding their interest rate policy. However, the USD/ZAR has not broken through significant resistance quite yet, which suggests that if the Federal Reserve produces no major surprises later today, that the Forex pair will actually be poised to resume it downward momentum.

Traders who are experienced may actually want to sell the USD/ZAR using momentum techniques over the next twenty-four hours. If a speculator decides to participate in the USD/ZAR today before the U.S Fed’s announcements, the trader may decide to place a limit order above current values and sell the Forex pair when it hits a resistance level, which is anticipated. The junctures of 13.80000 to 13.90000 look like potential areas to target as values to sell the USD/ZAR.

The USD/ZAR, like all other major Forex pairs, is certain to grow in volatility today.  Trading before and immediately after the U.S central bank’s interest rate policy decisions are always a speculative endeavor. Traders are urged to be cautious, use a limited amount of leverage and have their risk-taking tactics astutely managed. A speculator who wants to wager that the USD/ZAR may recapture some of its bearish momentum near term is taking a risk, but it may be the logical decision.

South African Rand Short-Term Outlook:

Current Resistance: 13.81000

Current Support: 13.71000

High Target: 13.90100

Low Target: 13.6400

USD/ZAR

Robert Petrucci
Robert Petrucci has worked in the Forex, commodity, and financial profession since 1993. Important aspects of his work involve risk analysis and advisory services. As an advisor in a Family Office he maintains a conservative approach for wealth management and investments. Robert also works in private finance with investors and companies delivering financial and management services.

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