The USD/TRY is testing all-time record highs as of this writing. The USD/TRY is trading near the 8.75000 ratio and the 8.80000 juncture above may look quite attractive to many speculators. However, even though the Turkish lira has continued to bleed value against the USD, traders should not be swept up into quick decisions regarding the Forex pair.
On the 14th of June, the USD/TRY was actually trading near the 8.30000 ratio and had displayed the capability of creating some bearish momentum. In the past week, the USD/TRY has seen a sustained bullish move take hold as sentiment has shifted regarding the prospects of U.S Federal Reserve interest rate policy. The combination of a potentially more hawkish U.S central bank mixed with the capability of volatile pronouncements from the Turkish leadership has fueled the USD/TRY higher.
Technically, the USD/TRY was trading slightly below its current price ratio in the first week of June. The ability of the USD/TRY to create some interesting downside action should not be forgotten. The USD/TRY did demonstrate that it has the ability to correlate with other major Forex pairs teamed against the USD briefly. However, the current stance of the USD/TRY is certainly testing high water marks and, if confidence in the Turkish lira erodes at these heights, technically some speculators could aim for loftier targets.
Speculators should remain conservative within the USD/TRY. The pair can deliver rapid price moves which can test inexperienced traders in a very unpleasant manner. Traders are encouraged to use limit orders and risk management tactics wisely. As the USD/TRY traverses near record values, traders need to carefully ponder their short-term perceptions before they venture forth with wagers.
Cautious traders may actually want to wait for slightly higher moves to enter buying positions of the USD/TRY. Placing limit orders above the current market value and seeking to step onto the trend, if it finds additional momentum near the 8.78000 to 8.80000 junctures could prove effective, while aiming for a take-profit near the 8.82000 to 8.85000 realms. Traders who want to sell the USD/TRY at the historical heights being tested also need to be conservative and use stop-losses to guard against momentum which may continue to prove difficult to grasp.
Turkish Lira Short-Term Outlook:
Current Resistance: 8.80000
Current Support: 8.70000
High Target: 8.85000
Low Target: 8.60000
