USD/INR: Incremental Move Upwards Testing Key Mid-Term Highs

Robert Petrucci

The USD/INR continues to prove bearish speculators wrong as it incrementally climbs higher and tests mid-term values seen in April.

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The USD/INR has produced another display of higher values and as of this writing the Forex pair remains within sight of important mid-term highs. While a slight reversal has been displayed momentarily, the USD/INR is near the 74.4000 level and did hit the 74.4400 a little while ago. The Indian rupee is traversing values it demonstrated in the last week of April, when India was dealing with a strong wave of coronavirus which created nervous trading conditions among financial institutions.

After hitting a high of approximately 75.5000 in mid-April, the USD/INR then found itself trading near a depth of 72.3500 the last week in May. The rather abrupt and volatile trading conditions of the USD/INR are rather common, but the trading results witnessed the past three months have been violent and have certainly challenged speculators.

Bearish traders who continue to believe the USD/INR cannot climb much higher than it is currently traversing, should take a look at the values in April to refresh their mindsets that there may be additional room to traverse upwards technically.  While traders who believe the downside has more room to traverse than the upside may be proven correct, the question is if and when this bearish display will be exhibited. Wagering on downside momentum since the start of June has proven problematic.

Traders who simply want to pursue the trend higher until it runs out of power may be making the correct decision.  However, in order to buy the USD/INR and capture upwards value, traders should certainly be using take profit tactics to cash out of winning positions to make sure they do not erode. While it may seem rather unlikely the USD/INR has a lot of additional room to maneuver higher, there comes a time when traders sometimes need to recalibrate their short term perspectives.

Traders may have a completely different viewpoint with their short term and mid-term outlooks for the USD/INR and that is probably a correct stance.  The USD/INR does appear overbought, but pursuing a sudden reversal lower needs to be done with adequate stop loss orders working. The trajectory of the USD/INR has been incrementally higher the past month and until it changes direction with a sustained result, wagers against the trend appear to be dangerous in the short term. Short term buyers may be correct if they continue to buy the USD/INR short term.

Indian Rupee Short-Term Outlook:

Current Resistance: 74.4600

Current Support: 74.2600

High Target: 74.5800

Low Target: 74.1200

USD/INR

Robert Petrucci
Robert Petrucci has worked in the Forex, commodity, and financial profession since 1993. Important aspects of his work involve risk analysis and advisory services. As an advisor in a Family Office he maintains a conservative approach for wealth management and investments. Robert also works in private finance with investors and companies delivering financial and management services.

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