Trading Support and Resistance

Adam Lemon

Get our trading strategies with our monthly & weekly forecasts of currency pairs worth watching using support & resistance for the week of June 14, 2021.

This week we will begin with our monthly and weekly forecasts of the currency pairs worth watching. The first part of our forecast is based upon our research of the past 18 years of Forex prices, which show that the following methodologies have all produced profitable results:

Let us look at the relevant data of currency price changes and interest rates to date, which we compiled using a trade-weighted index of the major global currencies:

Currency Price Changes and Interest Rates

Monthly Forecast June 2021

For the month of June, we forecasted that the USD/CAD currency pair would fall in value, and the CAD/JPY currency cross would rise in value. The performance of the forecast so far is shown below:

Monthly Forecast June 2021
Weekly Forecast 13th June 2021

Last week, we made no weekly forecast, as there were no large counter-trend price movements in any important currency pairs or crosses.

We again make no forecast this week as this situation is unchanged.

The Forex market showed a very small increase in its level of volatility last week, with only 7% of the important currency pairs and crosses again moving by more than 1% in value. However, volatility is likely to rise considerably over the coming week.

Last week was dominated by relative strength in the Swiss Franc, and relative weakness in the New Zealand Dollar. However, these price movements were so small as to be relatively meaningless.

You can trade our forecasts in a real or demo Forex brokerage account.

Previous Monthly Forecasts

You can view the results of our previous monthly forecasts here.

Key Support/Resistance Levels for Popular Pairs

We teach that trades should be entered and exited at or very close to key support and resistance levels. There are certain key support and resistance levels that can be watched on the more popular currency pairs this week.

Key Support and Resistance Levels

Let us see how trading reversals from two of last week’s key levels would have worked out:

GBP/USD

We had expected the level at 1.4116 might act as support, as it had acted previously as both support and resistance. Note how these “flipping” levels can work well. The H1 chart below shows how the price rejected this level with a bullish engulfing candlestick just at the open of last Monday’s London session, marked by the up arrow in the price chart below, which is typically a good time to be trading major pairs involving the British Pound such as this one. This trade was not very profitable due to the wider ranging environment, achieving a maximum positive reward to risk ratio of a little less than 2 to 1 based upon the size of the entry candlestick structure.

GBP/USD Hourly Chart

AUD/USD

We had expected the level at 0.7776 might act as resistance, as it had acted previously as both support and resistance. Note how these “flipping” levels can work well. The H1 chart below shows how the price rejected this level with a bearish engulfing candlestick right at the start of last Friday’s London session, marked by the down arrow in the price chart below, which is typically a good time to be trading the Forex market. This trade has been nicely profitable, achieving a maximum positive reward to risk ratio so far of more than 3 to 1 based upon the size of the entry candlestick structure.

AUD/USD Hourly Chart

 

Adam Lemon

Adam Lemon began his role at DailyForex in 2013 when he was brought in as an in-house Chief Analyst. Adam trades Forex, stocks and other instruments in his own account. Adam believes that it is very possible for retail traders/investors to secure a positive return over time provided they limit their risks, follow trends, and persevere through short-term losing streaks – provided only reputable brokerages are used. He has previously worked within financial markets over a 12-year period, including 6 years with Merrill Lynch.
Learn more from Adam in his free lessons at FX Academy

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